YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

YPF’s shale-led strategy advances, with execution risks still central

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis centered on shale growth, infrastructure expansion, and improved refinery performance, but the thesis requires continued execution and favorable external conditions.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $20.42B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.35
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $4.50B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +1.9% Event window
SPY move +1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.0% Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis describes a further shift toward Vaca Muerta, with mature-field exits, infrastructure development, operational technology, and financing becoming more prominent parts of the strategy.

Guidance delta

Maintained in the supplied analysis; no new quantitative guidance change was provided.

Key takeaways

  • Management’s strategy continues to prioritize Vaca Muerta shale growth and reduce exposure to mature fields.
  • Midstream expansion and refinery performance are important supports for the operating plan.
  • The investment case remains dependent on project execution, financing conditions, oil prices, and Argentina’s macro environment.

Management priorities

  • Advance Vaca Muerta production and related infrastructure.
  • Progress the VEMOS and Oldelval expansion plans.
  • Use operational technology and financing initiatives to support efficiency and growth.
  • Clarify the longer-term plan through the announced Investor Day.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
YPF REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $14M, None Q1 '24 estimate $4B Q1 '24 actual $5M, miss Q2 '24 estimate $5B Q2 '24 actual $5M, miss Q2 '25 estimate $5B Q2 '25 actual $5B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $5B Q3 '25 actual $5B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3M Q4 '25 actual $3M, beat Q1 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '26 actual $4B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $6B Q2 '26 actual $6B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $6B Q4 '26 estimate $7.7T Q1 '27 estimate $7.7T Q2 '27 estimate $8.5T

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$52.1Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 1, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 27, 2026
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeMay 19, 2025
HSBC Hold ReduceUpgradeApr 14, 2025
B of A Securities Buy NeutralUpgradeDec 9, 2024
Show 10 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $52.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$55$50.27 +5.6%Aug 27, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$60$50.05 +15.2%Aug 14, 2026
BradescoAnalyst unavailable$55$50.94 +5.6%Aug 11, 2026
UBSTasso Vasconcellos$48$48.98 -7.9%May 27, 2026
Morgan StanleyFernando D Sedano$47$35.39 -9.8%Feb 27, 2026
See 6 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

YPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…

Historical context

All YPF earnings

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-19T00:02:15.224412+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T03:20:42.480168+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T03:20:42.477387+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.