YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

YPF: Record shale output, strong cash flow, guidance maintained

YPF’s current earnings support a constructive operating thesis: record Vaca Muerta production, strong cash generation and lower leverage provide a foundation for continued growth. The main test is whether infrastructure, pricing, financing and LNG execution can keep pace with planned capital deployment.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $21.14B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.03 Consensus $0.83
EPS surprise +24.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.52B Consensus $5.04B
Revenue surprise -30.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -1.1% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -0.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 0.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +25.0% Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current quarter added record shale production, a 32% adjusted EBITDA margin, $871 million of free cash flow and 1.57x net leverage. Management also highlighted its first electric-fracturing deployment outside the U.S., a five-year Halliburton contract, expanded pipeline plans and an upward revision of Argentina LNG total investment to $24 billion.

Guidance delta

2026 guidance was maintained; management plans to accelerate capital deployment later in the year toward upstream, midstream and LNG priorities.

Key takeaways

  • Record shale production reached 205,000 barrels per day, or 76% of total output, supporting the 215,000 bpd yearly target.
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32% and free cash flow was $871 million, including $500 million of M&A proceeds; net leverage fell to 1.57x.
  • Management highlighted electric fracturing, expanded pipeline capacity and progress toward a year-end FID for the Argentina LNG project.

Management priorities

  • Continue scaling Vaca Muerta production toward a 250,000 barrels-per-day exit rate by December 2026.
  • Accelerate capital deployment in the second half of 2026 and expand VMOS capacity.
  • Advance the Argentina LNG project toward a year-end final investment decision.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
YPF EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.95 Q4 '23 actual $2.00, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.98 Q1 '24 actual $1.66, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.42 Q2 '24 actual $1.32, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.61 Q2 '25 actual $0.13, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.73 Q3 '25 actual $-0.53, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.77 Q4 '25 actual $-1.67, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.83 Q1 '26 actual $1.03, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.26 Q2 '26 actual $3.07, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3,263.29 Q4 '26 estimate $2,232.83 Q1 '27 estimate $1,869.79 Q2 '27 estimate $2,566.23

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$54.76Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 1, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 27, 2026
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeMay 19, 2025
HSBC Hold ReduceUpgradeApr 14, 2025
B of A Securities Buy NeutralUpgradeDec 9, 2024
Show 10 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $54.76. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$55$50.27 +0.4%Aug 27, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$60$50.05 +9.6%Aug 14, 2026
BradescoAnalyst unavailable$55$50.94 +0.4%Aug 11, 2026
UBSTasso Vasconcellos$48$48.98 -12.3%May 27, 2026
Morgan StanleyFernando D Sedano$47$35.39 -14.2%Feb 27, 2026
See 6 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

YPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…

Historical context

All YPF earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T14:28:46.298191+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T14:50:57.722865+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T14:50:57.720048+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.