Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%
YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
YPF raises guidance as shale growth and export projects advance
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: shale production growth, export infrastructure, and higher guidance could support the business trajectory. The main test is execution—particularly capital deployment, evacuation capacity, LNG financing, and downstream margin recovery.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$21.55B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.26
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $5.99B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.6%
Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about YPF FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove YPF's +1.9% move after FY2026 Q2 earnings?What changed in YPF's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for YPF after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied Q2 analysis describes record EBITDA and a higher adjusted EBITDA outlook, alongside higher capex guidance. Shale's share of output increased to 80%, while Loma La Lata, VMOS, and Argentina LNG became more prominent execution priorities.
Guidance delta
Management raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $8 billion and increased capex guidance to $5.8-$6.2 billion.
Key takeaways
- Q2 analysis describes record adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion and a 43% margin.
- Shale oil reached 80% of output, with management targeting 215,000-250,000 bpd by year-end.
- The transcript analysis says adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to approximately $8 billion and capex guidance increased to $5.8-$6.2 billion.
- Loma La Lata, Argentina LNG, and VMOS are the principal strategic projects highlighted.
- Net leverage was reported in the analysis at 1.1x, with liquidity of $2.5 billion.
Management priorities
- Accelerate second-half 2026 capital expenditure and target 21 rigs by year-end.
- Increase Vaca Muerta shale production and bring Loma La Lata to plateau production with an export focus.
- Finalize Argentina LNG investment decision and secure project financing.
- Advance VMOS and other export infrastructure.
- Maintain the fuel-price buffer mechanism while seeking downstream margin recovery.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$53.41Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $53.41. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +3.0% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +12.3% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +3.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | -10.1% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -12.0% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -45.7% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -43.8% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -56.0% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -58.8% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -49.4% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -90.5% | Nov 14, 2022 |
Track every rating change on YPF the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-11T18:17:15.400165+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-14T01:23:12.683215+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T19:00:52.641099+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T19:00:52.638307+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.