Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%
YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
YPF raises 2026 outlook as shale growth and LNG plans advance
The latest analysis supports the view that earnings growth and resilient demand can underpin YPF's trajectory over the next year, but the case depends on executing a large shale investment program while financing LNG and managing cash flow.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$19.32B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-1.67
Consensus $0.77
EPS surprise
-316.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.3M
Consensus $3.1M
Revenue surprise
+4.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.8%
Event window
SPY move
-0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+20.4%
Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about YPF FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did YPF fall 2.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in YPF's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for YPF after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Versus the prior quarter, the analysis shows stronger operating momentum and a more ambitious outlook: shale production moved above 200,000 bpd, guidance was raised, and 2026 capex increased to $5.5-$5.8 billion with about 70% allocated to shale. LNG financing and FID remain central execution milestones.
Guidance delta
Raised: 2026 adjusted EBITDA is targeted at $5.8-$6.2 billion, with $5.5-$5.8 billion of capex and about 70% directed to shale development.
Key takeaways
- Shale oil production exceeded 200,000 bpd and supported record 2025 EBITDA, according to the transcript analysis.
- Management emphasized lower lifting costs, conventional-asset divestments, and a shift toward a pure shale portfolio.
- The 2026 plan pairs higher EBITDA expectations with heavy shale investment and continued progress toward LNG project FID.
Management priorities
- Scale Vaca Muerta shale production toward the 2026 targets.
- Advance the Argentina LNG project toward final investment decision and financing.
- Continue asset divestments, technology-led efficiency work, and shale-focused capital allocation.
Follow YPF with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$49.67Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $49.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +10.7% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +20.8% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +10.7% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | -3.4% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -5.4% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -41.6% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -39.6% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -52.7% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -55.7% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -45.6% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -89.7% | Nov 14, 2022 |
Track every rating change on YPF the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…
Historical context
All YPF earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the YPF recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T20:46:10.499393+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T20:46:10.496650+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.