YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
YPF: Record shale output, strong cash flow, guidance maintained
YPF’s current earnings support a constructive operating thesis: record Vaca Muerta production, strong cash generation and lower leverage provide a foundation for continued growth. The main test is whether infrastructure, pricing, financing and LNG execution can keep pace with planned capital deployment.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current quarter added record shale production, a 32% adjusted EBITDA margin, $871 million of free cash flow and 1.57x net leverage. Management also highlighted its first electric-fracturing deployment outside the U.S., a five-year Halliburton contract, expanded pipeline plans and an upward revision of Argentina LNG total investment to $24 billion.
Guidance delta
2026 guidance was maintained; management plans to accelerate capital deployment later in the year toward upstream, midstream and LNG priorities.
Key takeaways
- Record shale production reached 205,000 barrels per day, or 76% of total output, supporting the 215,000 bpd yearly target.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 32% and free cash flow was $871 million, including $500 million of M&A proceeds; net leverage fell to 1.57x.
- Management highlighted electric fracturing, expanded pipeline capacity and progress toward a year-end FID for the Argentina LNG project.
Management priorities
- Continue scaling Vaca Muerta production toward a 250,000 barrels-per-day exit rate by December 2026.
- Accelerate capital deployment in the second half of 2026 and expand VMOS capacity.
- Advance the Argentina LNG project toward a year-end final investment decision.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $53.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +2.4% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +11.7% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +2.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | -10.7% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -12.5% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -46.0% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -44.2% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -56.3% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -59.1% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -49.7% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -90.5% | Nov 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…
Historical context
All YPF earningsLatest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T14:28:46.298191+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T14:50:57.722865+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T14:50:57.720048+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.