Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%
YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
YPF’s shale-led strategy advances, with execution risks still central
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis centered on shale growth, infrastructure expansion, and improved refinery performance, but the thesis requires continued execution and favorable external conditions.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$20.42B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.35
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.50B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.9%
Event window
SPY move
+1.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.0%
Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about YPF FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove YPF's +1.9% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in YPF's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for YPF after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis describes a further shift toward Vaca Muerta, with mature-field exits, infrastructure development, operational technology, and financing becoming more prominent parts of the strategy.
Guidance delta
Maintained in the supplied analysis; no new quantitative guidance change was provided.
Key takeaways
- Management’s strategy continues to prioritize Vaca Muerta shale growth and reduce exposure to mature fields.
- Midstream expansion and refinery performance are important supports for the operating plan.
- The investment case remains dependent on project execution, financing conditions, oil prices, and Argentina’s macro environment.
Management priorities
- Advance Vaca Muerta production and related infrastructure.
- Progress the VEMOS and Oldelval expansion plans.
- Use operational technology and financing initiatives to support efficiency and growth.
- Clarify the longer-term plan through the announced Investor Day.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$52.1Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $52.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +5.6% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +15.2% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +5.6% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | -7.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -9.8% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -44.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -42.4% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -54.9% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -57.8% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -48.2% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -90.2% | Nov 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…
Historical context
All YPF earningsLatest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-19T00:02:15.224412+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T03:20:42.480168+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T03:20:42.477387+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.