YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
YPF leans on shale growth and export infrastructure
YPF's growth case rests on expanding Vaca Muerta shale output and export infrastructure, but the evidence is balanced by negative free cash flow, capital needs, execution risks, and unresolved legal and regulatory issues.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management continued the shale-led strategy while emphasizing faster progress on export infrastructure, a target to lower lifting costs, and the search for LNG equity partners. The supplied analysis still flags negative free cash flow, although leverage was described as improving.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a quantified change.
Key takeaways
- Shale production growth remains the central earnings driver.
- VEMOS and OldelVal progress is important to expanding export capacity.
- Free cash flow remains negative, while management says leverage is improving.
- Management is targeting lower lifting costs and pursuing LNG equity partners.
- The strategy is shifting toward non-conventional assets.
Management priorities
- Expand Vaca Muerta shale production.
- Advance VEMOS and OldelVal pipeline capacity.
- Reduce lifting costs through operating improvements.
- Continue the LNG roadshow and seek equity partners.
- Manage debt maturities and capital allocation.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.68. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +8.5% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +18.4% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +8.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | -5.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -7.3% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -42.8% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -40.8% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -53.6% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -56.6% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -46.7% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -89.9% | Nov 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…
Historical context
All YPF earningsEnergy peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLB Slb N.V. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.7% | +7.1% | SLB Q3 2026: Growth Broadens Beyond Core Oilfield |
| E Eni S.p.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | +4.3% | Eni pairs upstream growth with record shareholder returns and transition progress |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +12.9% | -2.4% | Valero Q3: Record Profitability, Strong Cash Generation and Execution Risks |
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Get the YPF recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:39:04.055137+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T04:00:42.934365+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T04:00:42.931612+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.