YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024

YPF leans on shale growth and export infrastructure

YPF's growth case rests on expanding Vaca Muerta shale output and export infrastructure, but the evidence is balanced by negative free cash flow, capital needs, execution risks, and unresolved legal and regulatory issues.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $19.87B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.97
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $4.84B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +3.8% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +3.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +42.2% Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management continued the shale-led strategy while emphasizing faster progress on export infrastructure, a target to lower lifting costs, and the search for LNG equity partners. The supplied analysis still flags negative free cash flow, although leverage was described as improving.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a quantified change.

Key takeaways

  • Shale production growth remains the central earnings driver.
  • VEMOS and OldelVal progress is important to expanding export capacity.
  • Free cash flow remains negative, while management says leverage is improving.
  • Management is targeting lower lifting costs and pursuing LNG equity partners.
  • The strategy is shifting toward non-conventional assets.

Management priorities

  • Expand Vaca Muerta shale production.
  • Advance VEMOS and OldelVal pipeline capacity.
  • Reduce lifting costs through operating improvements.
  • Continue the LNG roadshow and seek equity partners.
  • Manage debt maturities and capital allocation.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
YPF EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 8 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2.95 Q4 '23 actual $2.00, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.98 Q1 '24 actual $1.66, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.42 Q2 '24 actual $1.32, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.61 Q2 '25 actual $0.13, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.73 Q3 '25 actual $-0.53, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.77 Q4 '25 actual $-1.67, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.83 Q1 '26 actual $1.03, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.26 Q2 '26 actual $3.07, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.92 Q4 '26 estimate $2,731.07 Q1 '27 estimate $2,530.26 Q2 '27 estimate $3,124.71

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$50.68Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 1, 2026
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 27, 2026
Citigroup Buy NeutralUpgradeMay 19, 2025
HSBC Hold ReduceUpgradeApr 14, 2025
B of A Securities Buy NeutralUpgradeDec 9, 2024
Jefferies Buy HoldUpgradeAug 30, 2024
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 25, 2024
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeMar 21, 2024
Credit Suisse Underperform NeutralDowngradeJan 14, 2021
Raymond James Outperform Strong BuyDowngradeMar 17, 2020
Santander Hold BuyDowngradeDec 10, 2019
Bank of America Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2019
Tudor Pickering Buy HoldUpgradeJan 26, 2016
Deutsche Bank Hold BuyDowngradeDec 9, 2014
Bank oferica Underperform UnderperformMaintainApr 17, 2012
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $50.68. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$55$50.27 +8.5%Aug 27, 2026
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$60$50.05 +18.4%Aug 14, 2026
BradescoAnalyst unavailable$55$50.94 +8.5%Aug 11, 2026
UBSTasso Vasconcellos$48$48.98 -5.3%May 27, 2026
Morgan StanleyFernando D Sedano$47$35.39 -7.3%Feb 27, 2026
Bank of America SecuritiesLeonardo Marcondes$29$23.65 -42.8%Sep 18, 2024
JefferiesAlejandro Anibal Demichelis$30$22.44 -40.8%Aug 30, 2024
JefferiesAlejandro Demichelis$23.5$20.79 -53.6%Apr 23, 2024
Morgan StanleyFernando D Sedano$22$20.19 -56.6%Mar 21, 2024
UBSLuiz Carvalho$27$16.96 -46.7%Feb 21, 2024
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$5.1$8.04 -89.9%Nov 14, 2022
Show less

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

YPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…

Historical context

All YPF earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:39:04.055137+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T04:00:42.934365+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T04:00:42.931612+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.