Seagate Technology Holdings plc · STX · FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026

Seagate posts record quarter as HAMR and AI storage demand accelerate

The current analysis supports a constructive Seagate growth thesis: AI-related data generation, hyperscale expansion and HAMR are reinforcing demand and pricing. The thesis remains conditional on sustaining exabyte growth, executing Mozaic 4 and Mozaic 5 transitions, and containing component and supply-chain pressure.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $151.86B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $7.68 Consensus $7.45
EPS surprise +3.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $4.23B Consensus $4.15B
Revenue surprise +2.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move +3.7% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +3.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
STXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, Seagate's outlook became more operationally and financially expansive: the current analysis highlights a 61% year-over-year revenue increase, the Mozaic 4 ramp, a path to Mozaic 5 qualification, restored investment-grade status and greater emphasis on dividends and buybacks. The demand narrative also broadened through Microsoft-Broadcom qualification work and continued edge-AI opportunities.

Guidance delta

Raised: management's December-quarter outlook points to $4.8 billion of revenue and a mid-50% operating margin, indicating continued momentum.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue rose 61% year over year in the reported quarter, with record gross and operating margins.
  • Data-center and hyperscale demand, including AI-related storage needs, is supporting exabyte growth and the Mozaic 4 ramp.
  • Multiyear supply agreements through 2028–2030 provide visibility, while pricing and technology execution remain important.
  • Capital allocation has shifted toward shareholder returns and debt reduction after the investment-grade milestone.

Management priorities

  • Accelerate Mozaic 4 shipments and qualify Mozaic 5 by the end of calendar 2027.
  • Invest in manufacturing tools to support HAMR cycles and areal-density gains.
  • Continue dividends, share repurchases and debt reduction after regaining investment-grade status.
  • Develop next-generation high-capacity drives and pursue joint solutions with Microsoft and Broadcom.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
STX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.29 Q3 '24 actual $0.33, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.76 Q4 '24 actual $1.05, beat Q1 '25 estimate $1.49 Q1 '25 actual $1.58, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.45 Q4 '25 actual $2.59, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.40 Q1 '26 actual $2.61, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.78 Q2 '26 actual $3.11, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.51 Q3 '26 actual $4.10, beat Q4 '26 estimate $5.10 Q4 '26 actual $5.71, beat Q1 '27 estimate $7.39 Q2 '27 estimate $8.60 Q3 '27 estimate $9.91 Q4 '27 estimate $11.52
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2956.9%
Neutral1835.3%
Bearish47.8%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$667.85Current
$65Low
$520.23Average
$1,600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainOct 27, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 26, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 21, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 20, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $667.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Rosenblatt SecuritiesSajal Dogra$1,100$662.23 +64.7%Oct 26, 2026
Morgan StanleyErik Woodring$1,200$660.81 +79.7%Oct 20, 2026
Wells FargoAaron Rakers$865$690.81 +29.5%Oct 16, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$900$883.66 +34.8%Jul 30, 2026
BarclaysTom O'Malley$1,250$761.03 +87.2%Jul 29, 2026
See 125 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs.…

Historical context

All STX earnings

Technology peers this season

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CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
GLW Corning Inc FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.3% -1.1% Corning Q3: Optical growth leads, solar remains a drag
NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — +3.1% NXP posts strong Q3 as SDV and AI demand drive growth
MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — -1.0% Manhattan Associates: Cloud Growth and RPO Momentum Continue
FFIV F5, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 — -0.5% F5 pairs AI-security investment with 8%-9% FY27 growth outlook
CLS Celestica Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +12.6% +12.1% Celestica raises outlook as AI networking demand accelerates

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-28T04:06:05.426094+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-28T01:23:13.546025+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-28T04:20:42.960790+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-28T04:20:42.957764+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.