Seagate Technology Holdings plc · STX · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026

Seagate leans on HAMR scale and AI-driven storage demand

The quarter's analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: AI, cloud, and other data-intensive workloads are sustaining storage demand while HAMR adoption and pricing provide additional growth and margin levers. The key test is whether Seagate can execute the technology transition and maintain pricing as adoption broadens.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $206.25B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.71 Consensus $5.10
EPS surprise +12.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.63B Consensus $3.50B
Revenue surprise +3.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.3% Event window
SPY move -1.5% Same window
Abnormal move +3.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +10.7% Up to 20 sessions
STXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis adds evidence of broader AI-related storage use cases, including KV-cache and physical AI, alongside progress to 40% HAMR share of nearline exabytes. It also identifies longer-term customer agreements and the planned Mozaic 4 and Mozaic 5 ramps as the main execution focus.

Guidance delta

Management's guidance sentiment was raised; the analysis points to roughly 20% year-over-year pricing-per-exabyte growth in the September quarter and continued margin expansion.

Key takeaways

  • Data-center demand and AI-related workloads remained the central growth drivers.
  • Mozaic HAMR reached 40% of nearline exabyte shipments, with further scaling planned.
  • Management paired growth plans with disciplined capital spending and continued debt reduction.

Management priorities

  • Scale Mozaic 4 and advance the Mozaic 5 qualification and shipment plan.
  • Invest in manufacturing tools and laser capabilities for HAMR expansion.
  • Pursue value-based pricing and longer-term agreements while expanding edge-storage opportunities.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
STX EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.29 Q3 '24 actual $0.33, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.76 Q4 '24 actual $1.05, beat Q1 '25 estimate $1.49 Q1 '25 actual $1.58, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.45 Q4 '25 actual $2.59, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2.40 Q1 '26 actual $2.61, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.78 Q2 '26 actual $3.11, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3.51 Q3 '26 actual $4.10, beat Q4 '26 estimate $5.10 Q4 '26 actual $5.71, beat Q1 '27 estimate $7.36 Q2 '27 estimate $8.39 Q3 '27 estimate $9.50 Q4 '27 estimate $11.01
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2956.9%
Neutral1835.3%
Bearish47.8%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$919.84Previous close
$65Low
$512.46Average
$1,600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 29, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 29, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $919.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$900$883.66 -2.2%Jul 30, 2026
BarclaysTom O'Malley$1,250$761.03 +35.9%Jul 29, 2026
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$1,000$760.45 +8.7%Jul 29, 2026
BernsteinMark Newman$1,350$759.51 +46.8%Jul 29, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$875$747.3 -4.9%Jul 29, 2026
See 122 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs.…

Historical context

All STX earnings

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption
CIEN Ciena Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.0% -10.4% Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog
DOCU DocuSign, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.4% +3.7% DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook
IOT Samsara Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +25.0% +3.7% Samsara: AI adoption expands as FY27 guidance holds

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-31T14:11:58.628175+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-02T01:23:14.593608+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T08:00:53.263483+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T08:00:53.261040+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.