Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2956.9%
Neutral1835.3%
Bearish47.8%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc · STX · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2026
Seagate Beats on AI-Driven HDD Demand, Raises Guidance on Record Margins and Free Cash Flow
Seagate's FY2026 Q3 results reflect a structural shift in HDD demand driven by AI and cloud workloads, not merely a cyclical upcycle. Revenue grew 44% YoY to $3.11 billion with EPS of $4.10 (beating the $3.51 consensus by 16.8%), record non-GAAP gross margins, and $953 million in free cash flow -- the highest in over a decade. The Mozaic HAMR platform is ramping on schedule, with Mozaic 4 (44 TB) set to dominate exabyte shipments by calendar 2026 and Mozaic 5 (50 TB) targeted for late 2027. Management raised next-quarter revenue guidance to $3.45 billion with operating margins in the low 40% range, reinforcing the thesis that AI infrastructure spending is translating into sustained mass-capacity storage demand. The stock surged 11.1% on the report and drifted an additional 36.9% over the subsequent period on 3x baseline volume.
Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology
$183.19B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationSeagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.10
Consensus $4
EPS surprise
+16.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.11B
Consensus $2.96B
Revenue surprise
+5.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$742.61Current
$65Low
$419.7Average
$1,600High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 12, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Rosenblatt | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 22, 2025 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2024 |
| Summit Insights Group | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 26, 2023 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Fox Advisors | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 22, 2022 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 23, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 3, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 4, 2019 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 3, 2019 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Nov 5, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 11, 2017 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 26, 2017 |
| Aegis Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 13, 2017 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 11, 2017 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 4, 2017 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2016 |
| Needham | Strong Buy | Buy | Upgrade | Oct 11, 2016 |
| BTIG Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2016 |
| Maxim Group | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 2, 2016 |
| Pacific Crest | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 16, 2015 | |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 28, 2015 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2014 |
| Cross Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2014 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2013 |
| FBN Securities | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 29, 2013 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 29, 2013 |
| Lazard | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 9, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $742.6. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $860 | $862.07 | +15.8% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Aaron Rakers | $1,100 | $890.09 | +48.1% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $775 | $843.09 | +4.4% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $1,300 | $899.9 | +75.1% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Ben Reitzes | $1,600 | $899.9 | +115.5% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,035 | $1,000.62 | +39.4% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $1,090 | $847.47 | +46.8% | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $900 | $879.8 | +21.2% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $1,000 | $845.76 | +34.7% | May 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $1,000 | $806.75 | +34.7% | May 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $875 | $771.01 | +17.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $767 | $675 | +3.3% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $750 | $669.2 | +1.0% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $1,000 | $579.03 | +34.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $615 | $579.03 | -17.2% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $825 | $579.03 | +11.1% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $579.03 | -5.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $750 | $579.03 | +1.0% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $700 | $586.25 | -5.7% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $515 | $539.75 | -30.6% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $496.3 | -25.9% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $425.99 | -36.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $431.23 | -40.7% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Tristan Gerra | $505 | $444.38 | -32.0% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $442.93 | -32.7% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $468 | $429.8 | -37.0% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $440 | $429.24 | -40.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | James Schneider | $385 | $429.36 | -48.2% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $433.5 | -32.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $371.76 | -32.7% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $385 | $371.76 | -48.2% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $371.76 | -39.4% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $425 | $371.76 | -42.8% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $358.29 | -46.1% | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $372 | $344.22 | -49.9% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Karl Ackerman | $380 | $329.48 | -48.8% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $326.28 | -54.9% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $320.32 | -62.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $370 | $312.28 | -50.2% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $312.28 | -51.5% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $284.47 | -58.3% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $284.47 | -50.2% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $337 | $288.13 | -54.6% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $277.02 | -46.1% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $265.62 | -60.9% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $262.25 | -62.3% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $290 | $223 | -60.9% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $223 | -79.8% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Mark Newman | $275 | $258.33 | -63.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $258.33 | -63.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $270 | $258.33 | -63.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $230 | $223 | -69.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Tristan Gerra | $270 | $223 | -63.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tim Long | $240 | $223 | -67.7% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $235 | $225.4 | -68.4% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $280 | $226.03 | -62.3% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $214.38 | -55.6% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $214.38 | -67.7% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $217.51 | -64.3% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $216.64 | -67.0% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $180 | $172.38 | -75.8% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $188 | $147.42 | -74.7% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $147.42 | -76.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $168 | $147.42 | -77.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $130 | $112.74 | -82.5% | May 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $140 | $112.74 | -81.1% | May 23, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $140 | $91.03 | -81.1% | Apr 30, 2025 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $140 | $112.64 | -81.1% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Toshiya Hari | $112 | $112.64 | -84.9% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Asiya Merchant | $130 | $112.64 | -82.5% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Amit Daryanani | $135 | $112.64 | -81.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Asiya Merchant | $110 | $100.73 | -85.2% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $65 | $105.3 | -91.2% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $133 | $105.3 | -82.1% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $135 | $105.3 | -81.8% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $125 | $105.3 | -83.2% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| Barclays | Tom O'Malley | $95 | $105.3 | -87.2% | Jul 24, 2024 |
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $110 | $103.88 | -85.2% | Jul 8, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $110 | $93.71 | -85.2% | May 31, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $100 | $85.81 | -86.5% | May 1, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $115 | $88.21 | -84.5% | Mar 26, 2024 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | C J Muse | $170 | $88.16 | -77.1% | Feb 16, 2024 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $78 | $85.43 | -89.5% | Dec 14, 2023 |
| Wedbush | Matt Bryson | $55 | $63.96 | -92.6% | Apr 14, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Erik Woodring | $72 | $65.34 | -90.3% | Apr 4, 2023 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $75 | $60.43 | -89.9% | Mar 29, 2023 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $60 | $51.96 | -91.9% | Oct 27, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $65.92 | -86.9% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $65.69 | -90.3% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $64.48 | -90.6% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $66.96 | -89.2% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $66.96 | -91.2% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Toshiya Hari | $80 | $76.98 | -89.2% | Jul 27, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $83 | $76.42 | -88.8% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $76.19 | -88.7% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $83.61 | -89.9% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $83.61 | -83.8% | Jul 22, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $77.58 | -88.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $75.9 | -89.0% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Barclays | Tom O’Malley | $70 | $74.21 | -90.6% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Tom O’Malley | $85 | $82.17 | -88.6% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $80.94 | -91.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $81.65 | -86.5% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $81.65 | -87.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $83.73 | -87.2% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $83.74 | -87.9% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Patrick Ho | $125 | $85.04 | -83.2% | Apr 9, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vijay Rakesh | $105 | $89.42 | -85.9% | Apr 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Katy Huberty | $101 | $90.44 | -86.4% | Mar 16, 2022 |
| Rosenblatt Securities | Kevin Cassidy | $95 | $108.72 | -87.2% | Feb 6, 2022 |
| Benchmark Co. | Mark Miller | $112 | $103.68 | -84.9% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Mehdi Hosseini | $93 | $102.91 | -87.5% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sidney Ho | $110 | $102.91 | -85.2% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Jim Suva | $105 | $102.91 | -85.9% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Karl Ackerman | $120 | $102.91 | -83.8% | Jan 27, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Wamsi Mohan | $130 | $96.44 | -82.5% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Ananda Baruah | $130 | $99.68 | -82.5% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Barclays | Thomas O'Malley | $100 | $112.39 | -86.5% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Craig-Hallum | Christian Schwab | $112 | $97.14 | -84.9% | Jun 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on STX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+11.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+11.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+36.9%
Up to 20 sessions
STXSPY benchmark
Follow STX with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Seagate delivered a broad-based beat, with revenue of $3.11B (vs. $2.96B estimate) and EPS of $4.10 (vs. $3.51 estimate). The market reacted strongly with an 11.1% abnormal move on the report and 36.9% subsequent drift on 3x baseline volume. Key developments versus the prior narrative: free cash flow reached $953M, the highest in over a decade; Fitch upgraded Seagate's credit rating to investment grade; remaining performance obligations for the top three cloud service providers nearly doubled to $1.1 trillion; and management raised the long-term revenue growth target to at least 20% per year. The balance sheet was strengthened with $641M in debt reduction, bringing net leverage to 0.7x.
Guidance delta
Management raised guidance, projecting calendar Q3 2026 revenue of $3.45 billion (approximately 41% YoY growth) with operating margins in the low 40% range. This exceeds the current quarter's already strong performance and signals continued momentum in AI-driven storage demand. The long-term revenue growth target was lifted to at least 20% annually. Capex is expected to remain stable at 4-6% of revenue to support the HAMR transition.
Key takeaways
- Revenue surged 44% YoY to $3.1B with record non-GAAP margins and approximately $1B in free cash flow.
- AI, especially Agentic AI, and cloud infrastructure investments are fueling unprecedented HDD demand.
- Mozaic 4 is ramping to become the majority of HAMR exabyte shipments by calendar 2026; Mozaic 5 (50 TB) is targeted for late 2027.
- Next-quarter guidance projects $3.45B revenue (+41% YoY) with operating margins in the low 40% range.
- Balance sheet improved with $641M debt reduction, net leverage of 0.7x, and a Fitch investment-grade credit upgrade.
Management priorities
- Scale Mozaic 4 to dominate HAMR exabyte shipments by calendar 2026.
- Qualify Mozaic 5 for 50 TB drives with shipments targeted for late 2027.
- Finalize build-to-order contracts through FY2027 for nearline capacity.
- Continue debt reduction and shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends.
- Maintain capex at 4-6% of revenue to support the HAMR transition.
Related earnings events
TechnologyINTC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Intel Beats on AI Strength, but Foundry Losses and Rising Capex Drag SharesIBM · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026IBM Q2 2026: Revenue Growth Cools to 1% as CapEx Deal Timing Masks Underlying StrengthTXN · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026TXN Q2 2026: Revenue and EPS Beat, Pricing Hikes Begin, Guidance Reaffirmed
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T14:41:25.188251+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T14:41:25.185625+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.