Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%
YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
YPF sustains shale growth while advancing LNG and VMOS
YPF's Q3 call supports a constructive operating trajectory: shale production growth and strong cash generation are funding expansion in LNG, export infrastructure and renewable fuels. The main test is whether infrastructure, regulatory approvals and partner execution keep pace.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$19.34B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.81
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $5.75B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about YPF FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove YPF's -3.1% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in YPF's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for YPF after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management maintained its outlook while reporting stronger shale production, robust free cash flow and lower net leverage. The company also highlighted full ownership of YPF Luz, progress toward Argentina LNG financing and continued preparation for VMOS and early-2027 oil exports.
Guidance delta
Maintained overall guidance; upstream investment is increasing in Q4, with shale output targeted at approximately 250,000 barrels per day by December 2026.
Key takeaways
- Shale oil production reached 224,000 barrels per day, with management targeting approximately 250,000 barrels per day by year-end.
- Free cash flow was $900 million and net leverage fell to 0.8x, supporting continued investment.
- The full-year capital-expenditure target is $5.8 billion to $6.2 billion, with upstream investment increasing in Q4.
- YPF completed the acquisition of the remaining 25% of YPF Luz and is progressing its LNG, VMOS and renewable-fuels initiatives.
Management priorities
- Increase Vaca Muerta shale output toward the year-end target.
- Complete the Luján de Cuyo crude-treatment expansion and bring VMOS online.
- Advance Argentina LNG toward a November 2026 final investment decision and financing.
- Expand sustainable aviation fuel and renewable-diesel production.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$47.81Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $47.81. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +15.0% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +25.5% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +15.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | +0.4% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -1.7% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -39.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -37.3% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -50.8% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -54.0% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -43.5% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -89.3% | Nov 14, 2022 |
Track every rating change on YPF the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. The company provides a diverse range of products such as diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, phytosanitary products, and ensiling bags. It also supplies various commodities including gasoline, fuel oil, coal, asphalts, paraffin, sulfur, CO2, decanted oil, and aromatic extract. Established in 1977, YPF Sociedad Anónima maintains its headquarters in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Historical context
All YPF earningsEnergy peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR Antero Resources Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +22.3% | -2.2% | Antero posts record production as margin initiatives gain traction |
| LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +7.1% | Cheniere raises 2026 outlook as LNG volumes and contracts grow |
| EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.9% | Enterprise Products raises outlook as Permian growth accelerates |
| TTE TotalEnergies SE | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +1.5% | TotalEnergies posts strong Q3 as refining and LNG lead growth |
| DTM DT Midstream, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +3.7% | DT Midstream raises guidance while trimming growth capital |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ARFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+22.3% EPS-2.2% move
- INVHFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+49.5% EPS-0.4% move
- AEMFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+5.7% EPS-3.9% move
- ORLYFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+4.3% EPS-2.7% move
- STRLFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+22.3% EPS-0.4% move
- KGCFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+8.7% EPS-6.1% move
Get the YPF recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T19:11:01.583207+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-06T01:23:11.772647+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-29T21:50:44.389775+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-29T21:50:44.387117+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.