Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish746.7%
Neutral640.0%
Bearish213.3%
YPF Sociedad Anónima · YPF · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
YPF expands Vaca Muerta output as costs fall; cash flow turns negative
YPF's operating trajectory supports the case for earnings growth through rising Vaca Muerta production, sharply lower lifting costs, and stronger downstream utilization. The counterweight is that acquisition and project spending have weakened free cash flow, while leverage and LNG financing create execution and funding risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$20.09B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.53
Consensus $0.73
EPS surprise
-172.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.64B
Consensus $4.63B
Revenue surprise
+0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.9%
Up to 20 sessions
YPFSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about YPF FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did YPF fall 0.7% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in YPF's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for YPF after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, the current analysis shows shale production reaching approximately 190,000 barrels per day, lifting costs falling to $9 per BOE, and refinery utilization reaching 97%. The Argentina LNG project also moved forward with Eni and ADNOC, while free cash flow turned negative after the shale-asset acquisition and mature-field exit costs.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management kept its target of approximately 190,000 barrels per day of shale production by year-end and described a decreasing capex profile.
Key takeaways
- Shale oil production rose to approximately 190,000 barrels per day, positioning YPF to exceed its 2025 target.
- Lifting costs fell to $9 per BOE, a 45% year-over-year reduction, while refinery utilization reached 97%.
- Free cash flow turned negative after the $523 million shale-asset acquisition and mature-field exit costs.
- The Argentina LNG project advanced through a technical FID with Eni and a framework agreement with ADNOC, with financing being arranged.
Management priorities
- Expand Vaca Muerta shale production and maintain a decreasing capex profile.
- Scale autonomous drilling and AI-driven real-time operating capabilities across shale blocks.
- Advance Argentina LNG financing and partnerships while refining the debt profile.
- Improve downstream utilization and continue developing refined-product exports.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$51.16Current
$5.1Low
$37.96Average
$60High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 19, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 14, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 17, 2020 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 3, 2019 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 26, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 9, 2014 |
| Bank oferica | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Apr 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $51.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.27 | +7.5% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $50.05 | +17.3% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $50.94 | +7.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $48 | $48.98 | -6.2% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $47 | $35.39 | -8.1% | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Bank of America Securities | Leonardo Marcondes | $29 | $23.65 | -43.3% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $30 | $22.44 | -41.4% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $23.5 | $20.79 | -54.1% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Fernando D Sedano | $22 | $20.19 | -57.0% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| UBS | Luiz Carvalho | $27 | $16.96 | -47.2% | Feb 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $5.1 | $8.04 | -90.0% | Nov 14, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationYPF Sociedad Anónima stands as an Argentine energy corporation, actively involved in both the upstream and downstream segments of the oil and gas industry within the country. The company's upstream division is dedicated to the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its downstream operations encompass the refining, marketing, transportation, and distribution of a wide array of products, including crude oil, petroleum products, petroleum derivatives, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and biofuels. Additionally, this segment manages gas separation, natural gas distribution networks, and participates in power generation activities. As of December 31, 2021, YPF held interests in 119 oil and gas fields and possessed 18 exploration permits. Its reserves included approximately 643 million barrels of oil and around 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas.…
Historical context
All YPF earningsLatest beats and misses
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Get the YPF recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T23:20:43.860741+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T23:20:43.858079+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.