Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish11100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Smurfit Westrock plc · SW · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Smurfit Westrock Q1 EBITDA Hits $1.08B as Price Hikes Offset $65M Weather Hit
Smurfit Westrock's first-quarter results reveal a company executing through short-term headwinds while staying on its medium-term trajectory. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.076B at a 14% margin absorbed a $65M weather-related hit, and management reaffirmed its plan targeting $7B EBITDA by 2030 with a 7% CAGR and over 300bps of margin expansion. Revenue topped consensus by roughly 2%, but a 16% EPS miss drove a 4.2% abnormal decline on the report day. The stock subsequently recovered, drifting 7.2% higher on 2.7x baseline volume, suggesting the market looked past the EPS shortfall toward pricing momentum, new customer wins, and cost discipline. The bullish score declined from 85 to 72, reflecting analyst caution around downtime, price pass-through timing, and UK mill closures.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$25.31B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.33
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
-16.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$7.71B
Consensus $7.57B
Revenue surprise
+1.9%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$47.52Current
$45Low
$54.35Average
$71High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $47.52. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.56 | +49.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $45.39 | +19.9% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $52 | $37.13 | +9.4% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $57 | $41.96 | +19.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $39.28 | +5.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $41.3 | +13.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $41.84 | +11.5% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $61 | $51.84 | +28.4% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.56 | +17.8% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.27 | +26.3% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $58 | $51.43 | +22.1% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $55 | $50.28 | +15.7% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $40.07 | +3.1% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $40.07 | +1.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $38.14 | +7.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Alexandra Yates | $45 | $35.52 | -5.3% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $52 | $36.92 | +9.4% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $41.52 | +15.7% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $52 | $40.31 | +9.4% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.6 | +9.4% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $60 | $44.47 | +26.3% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.54 | +19.9% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $58 | $50.07 | +22.1% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $57 | $44.54 | +19.9% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $51 | $45.4 | +7.3% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $52 | $48.81 | +9.4% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $60 | $46.82 | +26.3% | Jul 18, 2024 |
Track every rating change on SW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.2%
Up to 20 sessions
SWSPY benchmark
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What changed
Q1 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.076B at a 14% margin, down from the record full-year 2025 EBITDA of $4.94B run-rate but in line with the company's medium-term trajectory. Revenue of $7.71B beat the $7.57B consensus by 1.9%. EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.39 estimate by approximately 16%, contributing to a 4.2% abnormal decline on the report day. The stock subsequently drifted 7.2% higher on 2.7x baseline volume. Management announced over 600 new corrugated customers with a 30% April volume increase, further price hikes for June/July, an Ecuador corrugated box plant acquisition, a potential LSE delisting review, and a reduction of loss-making box plants from over 60 to roughly 29.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its medium-term plan targeting $7B adjusted EBITDA by 2030 with over 300bps of margin expansion and a 7% CAGR. The full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA range of $5.0-5.3B, communicated with the prior quarter's results, was not revised. Guidance sentiment: maintained.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA of $1.076B at a 14% margin despite a $65M weather-related impact
- Revenue of $7.71B beat consensus by 1.9% while EPS of $0.33 missed by roughly 16%
- Over 600 new corrugated customers added with a 30% volume increase in April
- Price increases implemented across containerboard and converting grades in Europe and North America, with further hikes slated for June/July
- Loss-making box plants reduced from over 60 to approximately 29, reflecting continued operational turnaround
Management priorities
- Capturing pricing momentum through mid-year price adjustments across containerboard and converting grades
- Expanding innovation and experience centers in the US to drive higher-value offerings
- Continuing cost-takeout programs and efficiency projects across mills
- Growing Latin American footprint through targeted acquisitions including a corrugated box plant in Ecuador
- Reviewing the London Stock Exchange listing, which could lead to delisting to simplify the capital structure
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T18:42:09.660948+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T18:42:09.658194+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.