Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish11100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Smurfit Westrock plc · SW · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Smurfit WestRock balances price recovery with $700m cost headwind
Smurfit WestRock's earnings trajectory depends on converting price increases into full cost recovery while offsetting substantial energy and freight inflation. The transcript analysis supports a constructive operational case through margin resilience, efficiency investments, acquisitions and paper-bag demand, but timing, regional volumes and European supply conditions remain material uncertainties.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$22.31B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.60
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $8.29B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.6%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
SWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SW FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove SW's -5.6% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in SW's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for SW after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis points to a lowered guidance sentiment, a roughly $700 million 2026 energy and freight cost headwind, a $100 million biomass-boiler startup in Colombia, and the acquisition of CNPC packaging assets. Compared with the prior quarter, the focus shifted from maintaining full-year EBITDA guidance and increasing capex toward cost recovery, integration and lower capex.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was lowered; management expects full cost recovery of price increases by Q1 2027.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA margin held at 14.8% despite significant cost inflation.
- Management expects full recovery of price increases by Q1 2027.
- A $100 million biomass boiler in Colombia and CNPC assets in Chile support efficiency and regional integration.
- Energy and freight headwinds are estimated at about $700 million in 2026.
Management priorities
- Recover price increases fully by Q1 2027.
- Integrate CNPC assets and expand Chilean operations.
- Advance innovation centers, cross-selling, biomass and energy-efficiency projects.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$39.83Current
$45Low
$60.8Average
$170High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $39.82. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.04 | +38.1% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.25 | +45.6% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Nomura | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $50.02 | +326.9% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $54 | $49.18 | +35.6% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $60 | $47.63 | +50.7% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.56 | +78.3% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $45.39 | +43.1% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $52 | $37.13 | +30.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $57 | $41.96 | +43.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $39.28 | +25.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $41.3 | +35.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $41.84 | +33.1% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $61 | $51.84 | +53.2% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.56 | +40.6% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.27 | +50.7% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $58 | $51.43 | +45.6% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $55 | $50.28 | +38.1% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $40.07 | +23.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $40.07 | +20.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $38.14 | +28.1% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Alexandra Yates | $45 | $35.52 | +13.0% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $52 | $36.92 | +30.6% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $41.52 | +38.1% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $52 | $40.31 | +30.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.6 | +30.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $60 | $44.47 | +50.7% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.54 | +43.1% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $58 | $50.07 | +45.6% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $57 | $44.54 | +43.1% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $51 | $45.4 | +28.1% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $52 | $48.81 | +30.6% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $60 | $46.82 | +50.7% | Jul 18, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Historical context
All SW earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -2.1% | Hilton Q3: RevPAR growth and record organic openings |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.0% | +5.5% | RCL raises EPS outlook as bookings accelerate and resorts broaden growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- HLTFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-2.1% move
- SPGIFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-0.4% move
- PYPLFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+10.7% EPS+2.0% move
- CMSAFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+6.7% EPS0.0% move
- ITWFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+2.4% EPS-0.1% move
- IQVFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+2.5% EPS-0.7% move
Missed on EPS
- ARCCFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-3.4% EPS-0.5% move
- WSOFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-8.0% EPS-1.4% move
- IVZFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-2.7% EPS-0.4% move
- SHWFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-1.6% EPS-2.7% move
- BAFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-33.4% EPS-10.7% move
- AREFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-13401.8% EPS-5.9% move
Get the SW recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-28T14:06:27.378411+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-28T01:23:13.546025+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-28T15:00:45.435921+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-28T15:00:45.433019+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.