T-Mobile US, Inc. · TMUS · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

T-Mobile pairs Q3 growth with AI-RAN and broadband expansion

The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: T-Mobile is combining postpaid growth and network leadership with expansion in broadband, fiber, enterprise, and AI-edge services. The main test is whether these initiatives can scale while churn, spectrum, and infrastructure-return risks remain controlled.

Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services $158.84B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.22 Consensus $2.89
EPS surprise +11.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $23.58B Consensus $23.15B
Revenue surprise +1.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

close-to-close (session unavailable)
Stock move +0.9% Event window
SPY move +0.3% Same window
Abnormal move +0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
TMUSSPY benchmark

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Why did TMUS rise 0.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in TMUS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TMUS after FY2026 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior quarter, management added detail on the live-network AI-RAN milestone, launched Kinetic Edge with AWS, raised the postpaid ARPA expectation to 3.5%, and described a longer-term 6G integrated-sensing plan. The company also reported $10.3 billion of share repurchases and a 15% dividend increase.

Guidance delta

Management reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance, raised the postpaid ARPA expectation to 3.5%, and maintained the $10 billion capex plan.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 analysis cited 9% postpaid service-revenue growth and 11% adjusted EBITDA growth.
  • Management highlighted 274,000 postpaid net additions and 4% year-over-year postpaid ARPA growth.
  • Kinetic Edge with AWS and the first live-network AI-RAN call broaden the network-led growth strategy.
  • The company is targeting 15 million 5G broadband customers by 2030 and 3–4 million fiber customers.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI-RAN and physical-AI capabilities across the 5G Advanced network.
  • Expand 5G broadband and fiber toward the stated long-term customer targets.
  • Develop Kinetic Edge with AWS and pursue enterprise opportunities.
  • Maintain disciplined participation in the 2027 and 2028 FCC spectrum auctions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TMUS EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $2.28 Q2 '24 actual $2.49, beat Q3 '24 estimate $2.42 Q3 '24 actual $2.61, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.67 Q2 '25 actual $2.84, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2.40 Q3 '25 actual $2.59, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.05 Q4 '25 actual $1.88, miss Q1 '26 estimate $2.01 Q1 '26 actual $2.27, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.59 Q2 '26 actual $2.99, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.89 Q3 '26 actual $3.22, beat Q4 '26 estimate $2.74 Q1 '27 estimate $3.32 Q2 '27 estimate $3.64 Q3 '27 estimate $3.61
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish4280.8%
Neutral917.3%
Bearish11.9%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$148.08Current
$100Low
$214.22Average
$310High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Raymond James Outperform Market PerformUpgradeOct 12, 2026
Scotiabank Sector Outperform Sector OutperformMaintainOct 9, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 21, 2026
Wolfe Research Peer Perform OutperformDowngradeAug 14, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $148.08. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BernsteinLaurent Yoon$180$151.87 +21.6%Oct 13, 2026
Raymond JamesFrank Louthan$170$148.58 +14.8%Oct 12, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$212$171.31 +43.2%Oct 9, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$217$163.44 +46.5%Oct 2, 2026
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$232$178.92 +56.7%Jul 24, 2026
See 94 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

T-Mobile US, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, offers mobile telecommunications services across the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Catering to approximately 108.7 million subscribers, the company delivers essential voice, messaging, and data connectivity to customers in postpaid, prepaid, and wholesale segments. Beyond services, T-Mobile also supplies a broad array of wireless devices, such as smartphones, wearables, tablets, and other mobile communication gadgets, along with associated accessories.…

Historical context

All TMUS earnings
-10.7%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026+6.1%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026+5.1%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-29T04:06:35.846640+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-29T01:23:20.584741+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-29T04:10:44.741946+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-29T04:10:44.739193+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-29. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.