Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy11 ratings
Bullish11100.0%
Neutral00.0%
Bearish00.0%
Smurfit Westrock plc · SW · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Smurfit Westrock: strong Q1, synergies on track, risks remain
The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive operating thesis: stronger-than-expected Q1 performance, integration synergies, capacity actions and efficiency investment provide potential support, but demand uncertainty, tariffs, input costs and execution risks keep the outlook conditional.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$21.54B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.62
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $7.29B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.1%
Up to 20 sessions
SWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SW FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove SW's -3.7% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in SW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for SW after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shows Q1 performance exceeding expectations and adds evidence of broad margin improvement, nearly 600,000 tonnes of capacity closures, and a plan for 25 new converting machines beginning in 2026. The strategic direction is otherwise consistent: pursue synergies, rationalize capacity and prioritize value over volume.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; no new change to guidance was identified in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- Management described Q1 performance as stronger than expected, with double-digit EBITDA growth and margin improvement across regions.
- The integration and synergy program remained on track toward $400 million of run-rate synergies by 2025.
- Capacity rationalization and quick-win projects are central to the operating plan, while 25 new converting machines are planned from 2026.
- The main counterweights are uncertain demand, potential tariffs, energy and labor costs, waste-paper price volatility, and Q2 downtime.
Management priorities
- Deliver the $400 million run-rate synergy target
- Execute capacity rationalization, including plant closures and quick-win projects
- Implement 25 new converting machines beginning in 2026
- Maintain a value-over-volume strategy and disciplined capital allocation
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$41.07Previous close
$45Low
$60.6Average
$170High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $41.07. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $49.25 | +41.2% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Nomura | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $50.02 | +313.9% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $54 | $49.18 | +31.5% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $60 | $47.63 | +46.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $71 | $51.56 | +72.9% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $45.39 | +38.8% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Pallav Mittal | $52 | $37.13 | +26.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $57 | $41.96 | +38.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $39.28 | +21.7% | May 1, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $41.3 | +31.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $41.84 | +29.0% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ioannis Masvoulas | $61 | $51.84 | +48.5% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $56 | $51.56 | +36.4% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $51.27 | +46.1% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $58 | $51.43 | +41.2% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $55 | $50.28 | +33.9% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $40.07 | +19.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $40.07 | +16.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $38.14 | +24.2% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Alexandra Yates | $45 | $35.52 | +9.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $52 | $36.92 | +26.6% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $41.52 | +33.9% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $52 | $40.31 | +26.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $40.6 | +26.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| UBS | Andrew Jones | $60 | $44.47 | +46.1% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $41.54 | +38.8% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $58 | $50.07 | +41.2% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $57 | $44.54 | +38.8% | Oct 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $51 | $45.4 | +24.2% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $52 | $48.81 | +26.6% | Jul 29, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Brian Morgan | $60 | $46.82 | +46.1% | Jul 18, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSmurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally. The company produces containerboard and paperboard; packaging of corrugated containers; consumer packaging; and offers solid board, kraft paper, and graphic board, as well as other packaging products, such as solidboard packaging, paper sacks and bag-in-box. It produces linerboard and corrugated medium and paperboard; and other paper-based packaging, such as folding cartons, inserts, labels and displays. The company primarily serves food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, garden, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice markets. It markets its products through its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock Plc was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Historical context
All SW earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | — | Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | -4.1% | Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-17T00:02:52.217204+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T07:50:42.773896+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T07:50:42.771061+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.