Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · LW · FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026
Lamb Weston raises outlook as North American volume growth continues
The quarter supports a constructive growth case: North American volume growth, pricing and mix, innovation, and cost programs are contributing to the outlook. The case is not risk-free because European supply and cost pressure, competitive dynamics, and execution of the efficiency program could offset gains.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensusMarket reaction
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management moved from a maintained outlook to a raised full-year outlook. The current analysis also highlights a seventh consecutive quarter of North American volume growth, early zero-based-budgeting savings, AI deployment and a planned European capacity reduction.
Guidance delta
Management's full-year outlook was raised for net sales, adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA.
Key takeaways
- Management reported a seventh consecutive quarter of North American volume growth and attributed demand strength partly to chicken-focused QSR customers.
- Cost-saving efforts, including zero-based budgeting and procurement improvements, are supporting margin expansion; the company also cited early AI deployment.
- European crop quality and yield issues are tightening supply and raising costs, leading to price increases and creating execution and competitive risks.
- The innovation pipeline and customer partnerships remain part of the growth plan, while organizational redesign and APAC consolidation add execution considerations.
Management priorities
- Sustain North American volume growth through QSR demand, pricing and mix.
- Deploy zero-based budgeting, procurement improvements and AI to improve efficiency.
- Raise European capacity utilization after plant closures while managing crop-related supply pressure.
- Advance product innovation and customer partnerships ahead of the planned early-2027 Investor Day.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2019 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 22, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 16, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $47.92. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens | Pooran Sharma | $50 | $43.58 | +4.4% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $53.11 | +14.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $57 | $53.11 | +19.0% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $52 | $49.64 | +8.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $57 | $49.58 | +19.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.58 | +8.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $56 | $49.58 | +16.9% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $50 | $46.6 | +4.4% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $48 | $45.23 | +0.2% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $46.51 | +12.7% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $46 | $41.84 | -4.0% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.8 | +14.8% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.64 | +0.2% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.13 | +2.3% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.94 | +4.4% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.01 | +31.5% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $58.08 | +37.7% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $58.08 | +41.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $58.08 | +35.7% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $56 | $52.49 | +16.9% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $57 | $52.68 | +19.0% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $90 | $77.28 | +87.8% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $80 | $78.22 | +67.0% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $87 | $78.22 | +81.6% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $74 | $67.61 | +54.4% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $77 | $66.58 | +60.7% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $65.44 | +56.5% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $96 | $79.07 | +100.4% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $105 | $79.78 | +119.1% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $98 | $81.53 | +104.5% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $132 | $81.53 | +175.5% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $81.53 | +140.0% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.68 | +123.3% | Jan 6, 2023 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
Historical context
All LW earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-06T18:05:50.954759+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-06T01:23:11.772647+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T18:10:43.785489+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T18:10:43.782770+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.