Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold19 ratings
Bullish631.6%
Neutral1263.1%
Bearish15.3%
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · LW · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026
Lamb Weston Closes FY26 With Strong North America Volume, Beats on EPS and Revenue
Lamb Weston's fourth quarter capped a strong fiscal 2026, with North American volume growth and cost-savings execution offsetting persistent international headwinds. The company beat consensus on both EPS and revenue, maintained its guidance stance, and signaled continued discipline on capital allocation. With the Focus-2-Win program exceeding its first-year savings target, new capacity online in Argentina and China, and an Investor Day planned for early calendar 2027, management is positioning for the next phase of margin expansion and strategic evolution.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$7.36B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.87
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+39.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.77B
Consensus $1.70B
Revenue surprise
+4.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$52.55Current
$48Low
$64.53Average
$132High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 31, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2019 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 22, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 16, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $52.55. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $53.11 | +4.7% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $57 | $53.11 | +8.5% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $52 | $49.64 | -1.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $57 | $49.58 | +8.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.58 | -1.0% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $56 | $49.58 | +6.6% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $50 | $46.6 | -4.9% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $48 | $45.23 | -8.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $46.51 | +2.8% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $46 | $41.84 | -12.5% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.8 | +4.7% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.64 | -8.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.13 | -6.8% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.94 | -4.9% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.01 | +19.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $58.08 | +25.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $58.08 | +29.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $58.08 | +23.7% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $56 | $52.49 | +6.6% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $57 | $52.68 | +8.5% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $90 | $77.28 | +71.3% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $80 | $78.22 | +52.2% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $87 | $78.22 | +65.6% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $74 | $67.61 | +40.8% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $77 | $66.58 | +46.5% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $65.44 | +42.7% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $96 | $79.07 | +82.7% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $105 | $79.78 | +99.8% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $98 | $81.53 | +86.5% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $132 | $81.53 | +151.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $81.53 | +118.8% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.68 | +103.6% | Jan 6, 2023 |
Track every rating change on LW the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.0%
Up to 20 sessions
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What changed
EPS of $0.87 beat the $0.626 consensus by 39%, and revenue of $1.77B topped the $1.70B estimate by 4.3%. North America volume growth moderated from 12% in Q3 to 9% in Q4, still delivering a 26% segment EBITDA margin. The Focus-2-Win cost-savings program surpassed its first-year $100M milestone, now targeting a $250M run-rate by FY28. The Broekhuizenvorst facility in the Netherlands was closed, removing roughly 10% of EMEA capacity, a new structural step not discussed in Q3. Guidance sentiment shifted from raised to maintained, confirming full-year targets already updated in the prior quarter. Capital expenditures came in at $410M for FY26, with FY27 guided to $350-410M. The company returned $321M to shareholders through dividends and repurchases during the fiscal year. Executive Chair Jan Craps disclosed a personal investment in Lamb Weston shares.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment moved from raised in Q3 to maintained in Q4. The company had already lifted the low end of FY2026 net-sales guidance and the EBITDA midpoint in Q3; this quarter's maintained stance confirms those targets were met or exceeded. FY27 capex is guided to $350-410M, down from $410M in FY26. Management refrained from issuing explicit FY27 revenue or earnings guidance but expressed confidence in continued earnings growth and modest pricing actions.
Key takeaways
- North America delivered 9% sales volume growth and a 26% segment EBITDA margin, sustaining the growth engine behind the full-year beat.
- The Focus-2-Win cost-savings program exceeded its first-year $100M target, with a $250M annual run-rate goal set for FY28.
- International operations faced headwinds from EMEA capacity reductions and Middle-East input-cost inflation, though APAC and LATAM posted growth.
- Capital expenditures fell to $410M in FY26, with FY27 targeted at $350-410M, reflecting disciplined capital allocation.
- An Investor Day in early calendar 2027 will outline the next phase of the Focus-2-Win strategy, including potential M&A and innovation priorities.
Management priorities
- Hold an Investor Day in early calendar 2027 to detail the next phase of the Focus-2-Win strategy.
- Continue cost-savings initiatives toward the $250M annual run-rate target by FY28.
- Launch further innovation across retail and food-service channels, including new Alexia products.
- Expand AI, data governance, and cyber-security capabilities under the new Chief Strategy and Technology Officer.
- Evaluate potential M&A, partnerships, or divestitures as part of the evolving growth algorithm.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-24T15:07:42.303642+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-31T01:23:16.182055+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T21:11:26.911616+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T21:11:26.908898+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.