Seagate Technology Holdings plc · STX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2025

Seagate reports strong Q1 as HAMR and AI storage demand build

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient cloud and AI-related storage demand, together with HAMR adoption, is supporting growth; the durability of that trajectory depends on capacity, yield, margin and product-ramp execution.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $212.02B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.61 Consensus $2.40
EPS surprise +8.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.63B Consensus $2.55B
Revenue surprise +3.2% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +19.1% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move +19.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.5% Up to 20 sessions
STXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis describes a strong fiscal Q1 2026 with record non-GAAP operating margin, five hyperscaler qualifications on Mozaic 3+, more than 1 million Mozaic drives shipped, a roughly 3% dividend increase and maintained guidance. It also highlights AI-generated video as a new storage-demand driver and a sovereign-cloud partnership for autonomous-vehicle telemetry.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance, with the supplied analysis describing continued revenue and margin expansion and reaffirmation for the December quarter.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes fiscal Q1 2026 revenue growth of 21% year over year and a record non-GAAP operating margin of 29%.
  • Management linked demand to AI inferencing, AI-generated video, cloud data-center expansion and higher-capacity HAMR drives.
  • Five global hyperscalers were qualified on the Mozaic 3+ platform, with more than 1 million Mozaic drives shipped.
  • The company increased its dividend by roughly 3% and committed to returning at least 75% of free cash flow, according to the supplied analysis.
  • The next proof points are Mozaic 4+ execution, supply and yield ramp, and whether AI-driven storage demand develops as expected.

Management priorities

  • Qualify the remaining three global cloud service providers on Mozaic 3+ in the first half of 2026
  • Ramp the Mozaic 4+ platform with capacities up to 44 TB
  • Maintain capital returns while targeting capex of 4%-6% of revenue and reducing net leverage
  • Expand sovereign-cloud and other emerging storage use cases

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
STX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $2B Q3 '24 actual $2B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $2B Q4 '24 actual $2B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $2B Q1 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q3 '26 actual $3B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 actual $4B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4B Q2 '27 estimate $4B Q3 '27 estimate $5B Q4 '27 estimate $5B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2956.9%
Neutral1835.3%
Bearish47.8%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$945.57Previous close
$65Low
$512.46Average
$1,600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 29, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 29, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $945.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$900$883.66 -4.8%Jul 30, 2026
BarclaysTom O'Malley$1,250$761.03 +32.2%Jul 29, 2026
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$1,000$760.45 +5.8%Jul 29, 2026
BernsteinMark Newman$1,350$759.51 +42.8%Jul 29, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$875$747.3 -7.5%Jul 29, 2026
See 122 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T08:06:11.708943+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T08:06:11.706153+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.