Seagate Technology Holdings plc · STX · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2025

Seagate pairs record results with HAMR ramp and FY26 investment

The supplied analysis supports the view that Seagate's growth can remain resilient as cloud, edge AI, data sovereignty, and HAMR adoption drive demand, but execution on qualification, pricing, margins, and tax effects remains important.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $190.37B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.59 Consensus $2.45
EPS surprise +5.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.44B Consensus $2.42B
Revenue surprise +0.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -3.4% Event window
SPY move -0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -3.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +13.4% Up to 20 sessions
STXSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis emphasizes record revenue and non-GAAP gross margins, three qualified major cloud customers for HAMR, a planned share-repurchase restart, and FY26 capex of 4–6% of revenue. Compared with the prior analysis, HAMR qualification has progressed, edge demand is more prominent, and the global minimum tax is a clearer FY26 consideration.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the supplied analysis says FY26 guidance was reaffirmed.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted record revenue and non-GAAP gross margins, supported by cloud and edge demand.
  • Three major cloud customers have qualified HAMR drives, with additional qualifications in the pipeline.
  • Management plans to resume share repurchases and target capex of 4–6% of revenue for FY26.
  • The supplied analysis identifies edge AI and data-sovereignty trends as expanding the mass-capacity storage opportunity.

Management priorities

  • Qualify and volume-ramp the 4-plus TB per platter HAMR platform in early 2026.
  • Advance the 5 TB per disk roadmap targeting early 2028 and a 10 TB per disk laboratory demo.
  • Resume share repurchases and maintain dividend payouts.
  • Increase capex to 4–6% of revenue to support technology transitions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
STX REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $2B Q3 '24 actual $2B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $2B Q4 '24 actual $2B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $2B Q1 '25 actual $2B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $2B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q3 '26 actual $3B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 actual $4B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $4B Q2 '27 estimate $4B Q3 '27 estimate $5B Q4 '27 estimate $5B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2956.9%
Neutral1835.3%
Bearish47.8%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$848.99Previous close
$65Low
$512.46Average
$1,600High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 30, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainJul 30, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 29, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 29, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainJul 29, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $848.99. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$900$883.66 +6.0%Jul 30, 2026
BarclaysTom O'Malley$1,250$761.03 +47.2%Jul 29, 2026
WedbushAnalyst unavailable$1,000$760.45 +17.8%Jul 29, 2026
BernsteinMark Newman$1,350$759.51 +59.0%Jul 29, 2026
SusquehannaAnalyst unavailable$875$747.3 +3.1%Jul 29, 2026
See 122 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Seagate Technology Holdings plc, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, is a global provider of advanced data storage technology and solutions, with operations spanning Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international regions. The company's extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of mass capacity storage offerings. These include enterprise-grade nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid-state drives (SSDs), and complete enterprise nearline systems, alongside specialized HDDs for video and imaging, and network-attached storage (NAS) drives. Beyond these, Seagate also supports legacy systems with Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T10:20:41.394396+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T10:20:41.391556+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.