Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1852.9%
Neutral1441.2%
Bearish25.9%
Phillips 66 · PSX · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Phillips 66: Midstream Growth Advances Despite Refining Volatility
The supplied analysis supports a measured positive operating thesis: Phillips 66 is building a larger Midstream earnings base and improving refinery flexibility, but the case depends on execution, debt reduction, and resilience against margin, tariff, and renewable-fuel policy risks.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$111.53B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.03
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $33.27B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-0.7%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+8.8%
Up to 20 sessions
PSXSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PSX FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove PSX's -0.7% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in PSX's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for PSX after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis put greater emphasis on the completed spring turnaround, the EPIC NGL acquisition, new Permian processing projects, and a higher $4.5 billion Midstream adjusted EBITDA target for 2027. It also noted that management did not currently plan a Midstream spin-off because of tax and integration considerations.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained. The call emphasized a $4.5 billion Midstream adjusted EBITDA target by 2027, debt reduction, and continued shareholder returns.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted the EPIC NGL acquisition, new processing capacity, and a $4.5 billion Midstream adjusted EBITDA target by 2027.
- A large spring turnaround was completed, with management pointing to improved refinery flexibility and yields.
- Capital allocation remained focused on debt reduction and returning more than half of operating cash flow to shareholders.
- The main counterweights are refining and chemical margin volatility, tariffs, renewable-fuel credit uncertainty, and execution risk.
Management priorities
- Expand the NGL value chain and fee-based Midstream earnings.
- Bring Dos Picos II and Iron Mesa online on the stated timelines.
- Continue low-capital refinery upgrades and improve post-turnaround utilization.
- Reduce debt toward the $17 billion goal while maintaining shareholder returns.
- Monitor renewable-fuel credits, tariffs, and capital-allocation flexibility.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$281.47Current
$48Low
$192.37Average
$335High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 30, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 12, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 20, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2019 |
| U.S. Capital Advisors | Buy | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 16, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Sep 28, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | May 27, 2015 |
| Gilford Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2015 |
| Tudor Pickering | Accumulate | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $281.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $276 | $278.18 | -1.9% | Oct 11, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $300 | $271.62 | +6.6% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $274 | $255.31 | -2.7% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $264.63 | +10.1% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $261.61 | +6.6% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $263.86 | +0.9% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $300 | $255.09 | +6.6% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $264 | $256.09 | -6.2% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $246.58 | +19.0% | Sep 1, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | John Royall | $209 | $203.91 | -25.7% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $239 | $202.55 | -15.1% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $216 | $202.55 | -23.3% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $235 | $205.78 | -16.5% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $211.41 | -26.1% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $235 | $212.27 | -16.5% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $194.4 | -16.5% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $189.64 | -26.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $188.68 | -35.0% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $212 | $173.71 | -24.7% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $196 | $178.1 | -30.4% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $212 | $173.88 | -24.7% | May 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $182.38 | -26.5% | May 19, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $175.72 | -36.1% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $159.53 | -38.2% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $177 | $168 | -37.1% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $155.41 | -43.9% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $155.41 | -43.9% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $158.31 | -38.9% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $170 | $158.38 | -39.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $154.69 | -47.8% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $154.69 | -44.6% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $140 | $140.08 | -50.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $138.8 | -46.0% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $142.16 | -49.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $142.16 | -45.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $143.37 | -46.7% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $139.42 | -39.2% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $160 | $138.4 | -43.2% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $138 | -43.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $138 | -42.4% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $129.13 | -46.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $132.92 | -53.1% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $134.94 | -50.3% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $155 | $139.46 | -44.9% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $132.29 | -48.5% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $128 | $127.51 | -54.5% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $142 | $129.01 | -49.6% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $133 | $131.71 | -52.7% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $148 | $134.39 | -47.4% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Matthew Prisco | $55 | $124.82 | -80.5% | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $124.72 | -53.1% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $140 | $115.19 | -50.3% | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $115 | $115.19 | -59.1% | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $144 | $132.31 | -48.8% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $156 | $132.31 | -44.6% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $160 | $135.85 | -43.2% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $170 | $143.66 | -39.6% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $162 | $165.41 | -42.4% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $179 | $170.75 | -36.4% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $187 | $170.68 | -33.6% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $140 | $133.21 | -50.3% | Jan 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $102.06 | -53.1% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $102.09 | -52.0% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $102.18 | -54.9% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $100.64 | -51.3% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $48 | $102.07 | -82.9% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $106.24 | -53.5% | Nov 10, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $109 | $90.51 | -61.3% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $89.94 | -62.3% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $86.76 | -59.5% | May 2, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $86.76 | -62.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $88.87 | -63.4% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $119 | $87.16 | -57.7% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Jason Gabelman | $78 | $73.15 | -72.3% | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $102 | $80.95 | -63.8% | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $80 | $76.66 | -71.6% | Oct 6, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $95 | $81.54 | -66.2% | May 12, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationPhillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S). The Midstream division manages the vital infrastructure for transporting and processing various energy commodities. This includes moving crude oil and other feedstocks, delivering refined petroleum products to market, offering terminaling and storage solutions, and handling natural gas liquids (NGLs) through processes like transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing. It also provides fee-based processing services and oversees the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The Chemicals segment is dedicated to the production and distribution of a broad spectrum of chemical products.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-11T00:04:52.040594+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T19:10:47.287354+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T19:10:47.284759+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.