Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold34 ratings
Bullish1955.9%
Neutral1338.2%
Bearish25.9%
Phillips 66 · PSX · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
PSX Q1 2026: EPS Beat Amid $839M MTM Loss, 138% Market Capture Sustains Cash Flow
Phillips 66 reported Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of $200 million (EPS of $0.49), sharply beating consensus estimates of a $0.54 loss, as a 138% market-capture rate leveraged global refining disruptions from Middle East tensions. Revenue of $33.0 billion fell approximately 8% below estimates. The quarter was dominated by an $839 million mark-to-market loss on hedge positions, yet the company generated $700 million in operating cash flow, returned $778 million to shareholders, and maintained its commitment to return over 50% of cash flow while reducing debt toward $17 billion by 2027. The stock rose 5.1% on the print with an additional 1.9% subsequent drift. Management pointed to the Western Gateway pipeline FID in mid-to-late summer 2026 (a Kinder Morgan joint venture), doubled renewable diesel RIN credits year-over-year, and CPChem growth projects (Golden Triangle polymers, RPP Qatar)…
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$82.53B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationPhillips 66 operates as a diversified energy company, specializing in both manufacturing and logistics. Its comprehensive business model is structured across four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing & Specialties (M&S). The Midstream division manages the vital infrastructure for transporting and processing various energy commodities. This includes moving crude oil and other feedstocks, delivering refined petroleum products to market, offering terminaling and storage solutions, and handling natural gas liquids (NGLs) through processes like transportation, storage, fractionation, export, and marketing. It also provides fee-based processing services and oversees the gathering, processing, transportation, and marketing of natural gas. The Chemicals segment is dedicated to the production and distribution of a broad spectrum of chemical products.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.49
Consensus $-1
EPS surprise
+190.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$33.00B
Consensus $35.86B
Revenue surprise
-8.0%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$205.85Previous close
$48Low
$157.52Average
$235High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | May 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Freedom Capital Markets | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 30, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 10, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 12, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 20, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2020 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2019 |
| U.S. Capital Advisors | Buy | Overweight | Maintain | Nov 16, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Sep 28, 2017 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2016 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | May 27, 2015 |
| Gilford Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2015 |
| Tudor Pickering | Accumulate | Buy | Maintain | Apr 15, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $205.85. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $235 | $205.78 | +14.2% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $211.41 | +1.0% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $235 | $212.27 | +14.2% | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $194.4 | +14.2% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $189.64 | +0.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $183 | $188.68 | -11.1% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $212 | $173.71 | +3.0% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $196 | $178.1 | -4.8% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $212 | $173.88 | +3.0% | May 27, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $182.38 | +0.6% | May 19, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $175.72 | -12.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $159.53 | -15.5% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $177 | $168 | -14.0% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $155.41 | -23.2% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $155.41 | -23.2% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $172 | $158.31 | -16.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $170 | $158.38 | -17.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $147 | $154.69 | -28.6% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $154.69 | -24.2% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $140 | $140.08 | -32.0% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $152 | $138.8 | -26.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $142 | $142.16 | -31.0% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $142.16 | -25.7% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $143.37 | -27.1% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $171 | $139.42 | -16.9% | Dec 5, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $160 | $138.4 | -22.3% | Nov 10, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $159 | $138 | -22.8% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $138 | -21.3% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $129.13 | -27.1% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $132.92 | -35.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $134.94 | -32.0% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $155 | $139.46 | -24.7% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $132.29 | -29.6% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $128 | $127.51 | -37.8% | Jul 16, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $142 | $129.01 | -31.0% | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $133 | $131.71 | -35.4% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $148 | $134.39 | -28.1% | Jul 10, 2025 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Matthew Prisco | $55 | $124.82 | -73.3% | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $124.72 | -35.9% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $140 | $115.19 | -32.0% | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $115 | $115.19 | -44.1% | Jan 13, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $144 | $132.31 | -30.0% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $156 | $132.31 | -24.2% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $160 | $135.85 | -22.3% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $170 | $143.66 | -17.4% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $162 | $165.41 | -21.3% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $179 | $170.75 | -13.0% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $187 | $170.68 | -9.2% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $140 | $133.21 | -32.0% | Jan 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $102.06 | -35.9% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $102.09 | -34.4% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $102.18 | -38.3% | Jan 5, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $100.64 | -33.4% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $48 | $102.07 | -76.7% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $131 | $106.24 | -36.4% | Nov 10, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $109 | $90.51 | -47.0% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $89.94 | -48.5% | May 3, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $114 | $86.76 | -44.6% | May 2, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $86.76 | -48.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $88.87 | -50.0% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $119 | $87.16 | -42.2% | Apr 18, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Jason Gabelman | $78 | $73.15 | -62.1% | Dec 28, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $102 | $80.95 | -50.4% | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $80 | $76.66 | -61.1% | Oct 6, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Manav Gupta | $95 | $81.54 | -53.8% | May 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PSX the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+5.1%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.9%
Up to 20 sessions
PSXSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Compared to Q4 2025 — where the narrative centered on the WRB acquisition, cost reductions toward $5.50/barrel by 2027, and a $1 billion midstream EBITDA run-rate — Q1 2026 introduced several new dynamics. An $839 million mark-to-market loss on hedges, driven by Middle East tensions and commodity price swings, became the dominant headline item, though partially offset by $3.2 billion in margin collateral (since declined to $2.1 billion). The 138% market-capture rate was a standout, reflecting the commercial team's ability to exploit arbitrage opportunities during global refinery disruptions. Western Gateway pipeline progressed from conceptual to a Kinder Morgan JV with FID targeted mid-to-late summer 2026 and service by 2029. Renewable diesel RIN credits more than doubled year-over-year, a potential free-cash-flow inflection point. Debt reduction targets were specified more precisely: $19 billion by year-end 2026 and $17 billion by 2027. Capex outlook shifted from increasing to stable.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained overall. Capex outlook moved from increasing (Q4 2025) to stable (Q1 2026). The $2.4 billion annual capital program target from Q4 2025 was not contradicted. Debt reduction targets were refined to $19 billion by year-end 2026 and $17 billion by 2027. The over-50% cash-flow return to shareholders commitment was reaffirmed. Western Gateway pipeline FID was targeted for mid-to-late summer 2026 with a Kinder Morgan JV and 2029 service start. The midstream EBITDA goal of $4.5 billion by 2027 (stated in Q4 2025) was not explicitly updated but was not walked back.
Key takeaways
- EPS of $0.49 beat consensus of -$0.54 by 190%, driven by a 138% market-capture rate exploiting global refining disruptions.
- Revenue of $33.0B missed estimates by approximately 8%, reflecting lower realized prices despite strong volumes.
- An $839M mark-to-market loss on hedges masked underlying cash generation of $700M and $778M returned to shareholders.
- Western Gateway pipeline advanced to a Kinder Morgan JV with FID targeted mid-to-late summer 2026 and service by 2029.
- Renewable diesel RIN credits more than doubled year-over-year, potentially driving a material free-cash-flow inflection.
- Debt reduction targets refined to $19B by year-end 2026 and $17B by 2027, with capex outlook stable.
Management priorities
- Return over 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders via dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
- Reduce debt to $19B by year-end 2026 and $17B by 2027.
- Finalize Western Gateway pipeline JV and reach FID by mid-to-late summer 2026.
- Commission Golden Triangle polymers project in 2026 and RPP project in Qatar by 2027.
- Expand renewable diesel capacity and leverage higher RIN values.
- Maintain midstream gathering and processing investment to support NGL volume growth.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T08:02:43.552529+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T08:02:43.549664+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.