Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1234.3%
Neutral2057.1%
Bearish38.6%
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. · ODFL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
ODFL Q1 2026: Revenue Beat, Operating Ratio Improves as Demand Recovers
Old Dominion Freight Line's Q1 2026 results delivered the first concrete signs of the freight demand recovery management had been positioning for. Revenue of $1.33 billion exceeded both the company's own Q1 guidance range of $1.25 to $1.30 billion and consensus estimates, while EPS of $1.14 beat by 8.6%. The operating ratio improved sequentially to 76.2% from 76.7% in Q4 2025, and weight per shipment rose roughly 1% year-over-year in April. Management's tone shifted from cautious to confident, with capex stepping up to $205 million for 2026 after several years of heavy network investment. Despite the fundamental beat, the stock dropped 5.6% on the report on 2.7x normal volume before drifting back 5.5% over subsequent weeks, suggesting the recovery narrative was largely priced in at the time of the report.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$47.06B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.14
Consensus $1.05
EPS surprise
+8.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.33B
Consensus $1.31B
Revenue surprise
+1.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.5%
Up to 20 sessions
ODFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ODFL FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ODFL fall 5.6% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in ODFL's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for ODFL after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Revenue of $1.33 billion beat both the guided range ($1.25 to $1.30 billion) and consensus ($1.31 billion), a 1.6% surprise. EPS of $1.14 exceeded the $1.05 consensus by 8.6%. Operating ratio improved sequentially to 76.2% from 76.7% in Q4 2025, though overhead costs still rose faster than revenue. Weight per shipment rose approximately 1% year-over-year in April, the first positive YoY change highlighted by management. Management tone shifted from cautious in Q4 2025 to confident in Q1 2026. Capex outlook changed from decreasing to increasing, with $205 million planned for 2026. LTL revenue per hundredweight grew 4.4%, continuing yield management strength.
Guidance delta
Guidance was maintained. Management expects sequential volume growth and operating-ratio compression in Q2, aiming to beat normal seasonal trends. The company reaffirmed its $205 million 2026 capex program for network, technology, and equipment upgrades.
Key takeaways
- Revenue of $1.33 billion declined 2.9% year-over-year but beat consensus by 1.6% and exceeded the company's own guidance range.
- EPS of $1.14 beat estimates by 8.6%, driven by yield management and disciplined pricing.
- Operating ratio improved sequentially to 76.2% from 76.7%, though it remains elevated by historical standards.
- Service quality remains best-in-class: 99% on-time delivery and claims ratio below 0.1%.
- Weight per shipment rose approximately 1% YoY in April, signaling improving freight demand.
- The $205 million 2026 capex program signals readiness to invest for growth as the freight cycle turns.
Management priorities
- Execute $205 million capex program for network, technology, and equipment upgrades.
- Target sequential volume increases and operating-ratio compression in Q2.
- Leverage service leadership to win market share across retail and industrial segments.
- Expand employee training and management development programs.
- Maintain yield discipline and pricing strategy.
Follow ODFL with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$171.67Current
$138Low
$230.98Average
$380High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 3, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 12, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 27, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 27, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2016 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 19, 2014 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 19, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $171.67. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $175.61 | +34.0% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $230 | $177.48 | +34.0% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $179.01 | +36.9% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $202 | $180.96 | +17.7% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $200 | $181.96 | +16.5% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $210.38 | +32.8% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $243 | $211.29 | +41.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $263 | $222.79 | +53.2% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $227 | $222.79 | +32.2% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $244 | $222.79 | +42.1% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $256 | $231.76 | +49.1% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $229.5 | +32.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $241 | $231.21 | +40.4% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $250 | $215.51 | +45.6% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $224 | $216.94 | +30.5% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $217.65 | +42.7% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $219.04 | +28.2% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $219.52 | +36.9% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $245.52 | +36.9% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $230 | $236.06 | +34.0% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $224 | $225.75 | +30.5% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $235 | $210.57 | +36.9% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $224 | $213.45 | +30.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $216 | $209.45 | +25.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $219 | $209.61 | +27.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stephens | Reed Seay | $240 | $209.35 | +39.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $209.35 | +22.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $209 | $209.35 | +21.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $229 | $220.53 | +33.4% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $205.19 | +32.8% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $201 | $187.93 | +17.1% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $185.92 | +28.2% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $196.04 | +19.4% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $202.14 | +19.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $217 | $202.36 | +26.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $201.79 | +16.5% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $225 | $204.78 | +31.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $208.54 | +17.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $208.54 | +35.1% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $208.54 | +7.8% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $208.54 | +13.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $208.54 | +21.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $185 | $176.28 | +7.8% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $173.52 | -3.9% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $150 | $173.57 | -12.6% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $171.07 | -19.6% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $166 | $165.6 | -3.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Stephens | Reed Seay | $190 | $166.01 | +10.7% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $162.97 | -1.0% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $159.19 | -1.0% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $157.5 | -3.9% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $173 | $157.44 | +0.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $155.15 | +10.7% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $170 | $135.29 | -1.0% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $136.13 | -9.1% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $155 | $136.13 | -9.7% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $137.03 | -5.6% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $136.18 | -6.8% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $143.77 | -4.5% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $150 | $139.24 | -12.6% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.16 | -16.7% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $144.36 | -13.8% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $148.79 | -9.7% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $175 | $155.61 | +1.9% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $185 | $158.9 | +7.8% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $180 | $154.47 | +4.9% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $150 | $153.23 | -12.6% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $188 | $155.11 | +9.5% | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Morgan | $185 | $170.1 | +7.8% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $179.55 | +37.5% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $215 | $203 | +25.2% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $205 | $188.67 | +19.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $200 | $188.67 | +16.5% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $210 | $188.67 | +22.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Fadi Chamoun | $210 | $199.42 | +22.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $188 | $193.5 | +9.5% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $206 | $184.44 | +20.0% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $204 | $185.71 | +18.8% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $209 | $205.82 | +21.7% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $196 | $176.07 | +14.2% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $185 | $173.3 | +7.8% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $210 | $173.91 | +22.3% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $210 | $175.37 | +22.3% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $205 | $181.7 | +19.4% | May 8, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $225 | $195.06 | +31.1% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $185 | $98.18 | +7.8% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $367.34 | +130.1% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $396 | $374.9 | +130.7% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $376 | +92.2% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $332 | $376.33 | +93.4% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $374.06 | +121.4% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $367.62 | +130.1% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $286.52 | +83.5% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $265 | $254.97 | +54.4% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $282 | $260.06 | +64.3% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Allison Poliniak-Cusic | $300 | $259.2 | +74.8% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $292.26 | +63.1% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $284.95 | +66.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $277.33 | +77.7% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $168.5 | $138.85 | -1.8% | Apr 4, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $368 | $323.91 | +114.4% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $385 | $354.64 | +124.3% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $395 | $354.41 | +130.1% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Todd Fowler | $375 | $354.83 | +118.4% | Nov 30, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $140.5 | $133.1 | -18.2% | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $285 | $257 | +66.0% | Apr 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ODFL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and national levels, often featuring expedited delivery options. Furthermore, ODFL provides a variety of supplementary services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consultancy. As of December 31, 2021, its extensive infrastructure comprised 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers, supported by 3 fleet maintenance centers and 251 service facilities. Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Thomasville, North Carolina.
Historical context
All ODFL earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.4% | -0.1% | ITW raises EPS guidance as Q3 demand stays strong |
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.3% | +5.8% | UPS raises 2026 outlook as premium volumes support margins |
| PNR Pentair plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.3% | +12.8% | Pentair tops Q3 expectations as Taco closes and pool destock ends |
| PCAR PACCAR Inc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | 0.0% | -0.6% | PACCAR posts strong Q3 as supply constraints limit deliveries |
| WSO Watsco, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -8.0% | -1.4% | Watsco posts record Q3 sales while margin risks remain |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.8% | -5.5% | Hubbell raises outlook as data-center demand accelerates |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- HLTFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-2.1% move
- SPGIFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+3.4% EPS-0.4% move
- PYPLFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+10.7% EPS+2.0% move
- CMSAFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+6.7% EPS0.0% move
- ITWFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+2.4% EPS-0.1% move
- IQVFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+2.5% EPS-0.7% move
Missed on EPS
- ARCCFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-3.4% EPS-0.5% move
- WSOFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-8.0% EPS-1.4% move
- IVZFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-2.7% EPS-0.4% move
- SHWFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-1.6% EPS-2.7% move
- BAFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026-33.4% EPS-10.7% move
- AREFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-13401.8% EPS-5.9% move
Get the ODFL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T01:11:49.886099+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T01:11:49.883369+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.