Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold35 ratings
Bullish1234.3%
Neutral1954.3%
Bearish411.4%
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. · ODFL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Old Dominion sees early demand signals but remains cautious
The call provides partial support for a recovery thesis: shipment density improved and excess network capacity could support share gains, but lower revenue, a higher operating ratio, and expected cost inflation leave the recovery unproven.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$36.15B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.09
Consensus $1.06
EPS surprise
+2.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.31B
Consensus $1.30B
Revenue surprise
+0.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+9.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+10.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.0%
Up to 20 sessions
ODFLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ODFL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ODFL rise 9.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in ODFL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ODFL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management described higher shipment weight and approximately 35% spare network capacity, while Q4 revenue fell 5.7% year over year and the operating ratio rose to 76.7%. The company continued to reduce discretionary spending and emphasized technology, AI, and fleet right-sizing.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance while projecting Q1 revenue of $1.25-$1.30 billion and an operating-ratio increase of about 150 basis points.
Key takeaways
- Q4 revenue declined 5.7% year over year and operating ratio rose to 76.7%.
- Higher revenue per hundredweight and shipment weight partly offset lower revenue.
- Management cited improving shipment density and excess network capacity as recovery signals.
- Technology, AI, fleet right-sizing, and yield discipline remain central to execution.
Management priorities
- Maintain technology and AI investment
- Right-size the fleet with modest capital spending
- Improve productivity and yield discipline
- Use excess capacity to pursue share as demand recovers
Follow ODFL with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$174.54Current
$138Low
$232.05Average
$380High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 9, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 8, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Apr 28, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 3, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 12, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 27, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 27, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 27, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 26, 2018 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 7, 2016 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 17, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 19, 2014 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 19, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $174.54. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | David Vernon | $200 | $181.96 | +14.6% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $210.38 | +30.6% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $243 | $211.29 | +39.2% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $263 | $222.79 | +50.7% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $227 | $222.79 | +30.1% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $244 | $222.79 | +39.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $256 | $231.76 | +46.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $229.5 | +30.6% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $241 | $231.21 | +38.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $250 | $215.51 | +43.2% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $224 | $216.94 | +28.3% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $217.65 | +40.4% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $219.04 | +26.0% | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $219.52 | +34.6% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $245.52 | +34.6% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $230 | $236.06 | +31.8% | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Harrison Bauer | $224 | $225.75 | +28.3% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $235 | $210.57 | +34.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $224 | $213.45 | +28.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $216 | $209.45 | +23.8% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $219 | $209.61 | +25.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stephens | Reed Seay | $240 | $209.35 | +37.5% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $209.35 | +20.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $209 | $209.35 | +19.7% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $229 | $220.53 | +31.2% | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $205.19 | +30.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $201 | $187.93 | +15.2% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $185.92 | +26.0% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $196.04 | +17.4% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $202.14 | +17.4% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $217 | $202.36 | +24.3% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $201.79 | +14.6% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $225 | $204.78 | +28.9% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $208.54 | +15.7% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $208.54 | +32.9% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $208.54 | +6.0% | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $208.54 | +11.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $208.54 | +19.7% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $185 | $176.28 | +6.0% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $173.52 | -5.5% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $150 | $173.57 | -14.1% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $138 | $171.07 | -20.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Daniel Moore | $166 | $165.6 | -4.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Stephens | Reed Seay | $190 | $166.01 | +8.9% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $162.97 | -2.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $159.19 | -2.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $157.5 | -5.5% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $173 | $157.44 | -0.9% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $190 | $155.15 | +8.9% | Dec 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $170 | $135.29 | -2.6% | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $136.13 | -10.6% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $155 | $136.13 | -11.2% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $162 | $137.03 | -7.2% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $136.18 | -8.3% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $143.77 | -6.0% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Brandon Oglenski | $150 | $139.24 | -14.1% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $139.16 | -18.1% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $144.36 | -15.2% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $148.79 | -11.2% | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Lucas Servera | $175 | $155.61 | +0.3% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $185 | $158.9 | +6.0% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $180 | $154.47 | +3.1% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Christian Wetherbee | $150 | $153.23 | -14.1% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bruce Chan | $188 | $155.11 | +7.7% | Apr 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Eric Morgan | $185 | $170.1 | +6.0% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $179.55 | +35.2% | Mar 7, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $215 | $203 | +23.2% | Dec 9, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $205 | $188.67 | +17.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $200 | $188.67 | +14.6% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $210 | $188.67 | +20.3% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Fadi Chamoun | $210 | $199.42 | +20.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $188 | $193.5 | +7.7% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ken Hoexter | $206 | $184.44 | +18.0% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $204 | $185.71 | +16.9% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $215 | $205.82 | +23.2% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $196 | $176.07 | +12.3% | Jun 25, 2024 |
| UBS | Thomas Wadewitz | $185 | $173.3 | +6.0% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $210 | $173.91 | +20.3% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Fadi Chamoun | $210 | $175.37 | +20.3% | Jun 5, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Garrett Holland | $205 | $181.7 | +17.4% | May 8, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $225 | $195.06 | +28.9% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $185 | $98.18 | +6.0% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $367.34 | +126.3% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $396 | $374.9 | +126.9% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $376 | +89.1% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $332 | $376.33 | +90.2% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $374.06 | +117.7% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $395 | $367.62 | +126.3% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $315 | $286.52 | +80.5% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $265 | $254.97 | +51.8% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Ariel Rosa | $282 | $260.06 | +61.6% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Allison Poliniak-Cusic | $300 | $259.2 | +71.9% | Jun 27, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $292.26 | +60.4% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $284.95 | +63.3% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $305 | $277.33 | +74.7% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Ravi Shanker | $168.5 | $138.85 | -3.5% | Apr 4, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | Jonathan Chappell | $368 | $323.91 | +110.8% | Feb 2, 2022 |
| Stephens | Jack Atkins | $385 | $354.64 | +120.6% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Bascome Majors | $395 | $354.41 | +126.3% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| KeyBanc | Todd Fowler | $375 | $354.83 | +114.8% | Nov 30, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jordan Alliger | $140.5 | $133.1 | -19.5% | Aug 2, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $285 | $257 | +63.3% | Apr 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ODFL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) serves as a prominent less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carrier operating across the United States and North America. The company's offerings include LTL shipping solutions at regional, inter-regional, and national levels, often featuring expedited delivery options. Furthermore, ODFL provides a variety of supplementary services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consultancy. As of December 31, 2021, its extensive infrastructure comprised 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers, supported by 3 fleet maintenance centers and 251 service facilities. Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has its corporate headquarters situated in Thomasville, North Carolina.
Historical context
All ODFL earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | -3.4% | Cintas raises FY2027 guidance as Q1 growth broadens |
| PAYX Paychex, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.5% | -8.8% | Paychex maintains FY27 outlook as PEO and AI momentum strengthen |
| FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +9.5% | Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the ODFL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T13:16:13.275132+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T13:16:13.272401+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.