Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish724.1%
Neutral1655.2%
Bearish620.7%
Moderna, Inc. · MRNA · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Moderna Q1 Revenue Beats on UK Demand; $950M Settlement Masks Narrower Loss
Moderna's first quarter of FY2026 beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with $389M in revenue (a 65% surprise) driven by international partnerships, particularly the UK. A $950M Arbutus litigation settlement inflated the reported net loss to $1.3B, but the underlying loss narrowed to $0.5B as cost discipline held. Management maintained its 2026 revenue growth target of up to 10%, with EU approvals for the flu-COVID combo vaccine and upcoming oncology readouts as the next catalysts. The stock's muted reaction (-1.5% abnormal) suggests investors are looking past the headline beat toward pipeline execution and regulatory milestones later in the year.
Reported Before market openNASDAQHealthcare
$21.62B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-3.40
Consensus $-4.45
EPS surprise
+23.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$389.0M
Consensus $236.4M
Revenue surprise
+64.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.5%
Up to 20 sessions
MRNASPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about MRNA FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did MRNA fall 1.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in MRNA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for MRNA after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Revenue rebounded sharply, with Q1 alone delivering $389M -- up roughly $300M year over year and well above the $236M consensus. The prior quarter's FDA refusal-to-file letter for the flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) was partially offset by a new PDUFA date of August 5, 2026. The Arbutus settlement resolved a major overhang but introduced a near-term $950M cash outflow. EU approval of the flu-COVID combination vaccine (mCOMBRIAX) marked Moderna's fourth approved product, a notable expansion from the prior quarter's Spikevax and MNEXT Spike focus. Capex outlook shifted from increasing to stable.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2026 revenue growth target of up to 10%, consistent with the prior quarter's raised outlook. Cost-of-sales and cash-cost targets were also maintained. Capex outlook shifted from increasing (prior quarter) to stable, signaling tighter capital deployment.
Key takeaways
- Q1 revenue of $389M beat estimates by roughly 65%, driven by UK partnership strength and up $300M year over year.
- Reported net loss of $1.3B includes a $950M Arbutus litigation settlement; underlying loss improved to $0.5B.
- EPS of -$3.40 beat the -$4.45 consensus by approximately 24%.
- EU approved mCOMBRIAX (flu-plus-COVID combo), Moderna's fourth approved product.
- Phase III monotherapy trial of Intismeran initiated in high-risk Stage 1 non-small cell lung cancer.
- 2026 revenue growth target of up to 10% reaffirmed with cost-of-sales and cash-cost targets maintained.
Management priorities
- PDUFA submission and decision for mRNA-1010 flu vaccine by August 5, 2026.
- Phase III trial readouts for Intismeran in NSCLC monotherapy and adjuvant melanoma in 2026.
- Phase III data for norovirus vaccine and propionic acidemia program expected later in 2026.
- EU launch of flu-COVID combo vaccine in 2027 with broader market access rollout through 2028.
- Investor events: ASCO (June 1), Science Day (June 25), Annual Analyst Day (November 12).
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$214.16Previous close
$15Low
$119.39Average
$350High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 26, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2026 |
| Rothschild & Co | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Underperform | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Leerink Partners | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Needham | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Aug 6, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 26, 2023 |
| SVB Leerink | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Feb 24, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 25, 2023 |
| Chardan Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 18, 2023 |
| Brookline Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 1, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 25, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $214.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $200.1 | +7.4% | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Salveen Richter | $137 | $226.3 | -36.0% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $150.81 | -62.2% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $180 | $142.77 | -16.0% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Eliana Merle | $125 | $145.13 | -41.6% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Michael Yee | $150 | $174.38 | -30.0% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $174.38 | -44.0% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $130 | $151.3 | -39.3% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $135 | $139.12 | -37.0% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $245 | $138.2 | +14.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $59.49 | -68.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Alexandria Hammond | $25 | $61.82 | -88.3% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $79.77 | -81.8% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $81.8 | -79.0% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $67.66 | -64.0% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $47.46 | -79.0% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $38 | $46.87 | -82.3% | May 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $45.37 | -77.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $44.18 | -84.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Tsai | $37 | $49.83 | -82.7% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $30 | $42.54 | -86.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $35 | $43.19 | -83.7% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.23 | -79.0% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $42.23 | -83.2% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $42.23 | -86.0% | Feb 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $35.66 | -84.1% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $29.9 | -86.9% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $29.62 | -86.0% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $25 | $23.1 | -88.3% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $18 | $22.36 | -91.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $22.36 | -70.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $22.36 | -92.1% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $24.77 | -86.9% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $26.85 | -81.3% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $27.12 | -93.0% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| J.P. Morgan | Jessica Fye | $26 | $29.56 | -87.9% | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kaimov | $50 | $31.92 | -76.7% | Feb 14, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $69 | $37.27 | -67.8% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| HSBC | Yifeng Liu | $58 | $84.93 | -72.9% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Courtney Breen | $55 | $57.46 | -74.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $55 | $57.73 | -74.3% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $115 | $69.68 | -46.3% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $75 | $69.68 | -65.0% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $238 | $69.68 | +11.1% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $65 | $69.68 | -69.6% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $105 | $67.68 | -51.0% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $94 | $67.51 | -56.1% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $120 | $67.52 | -44.0% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Arment | $220 | $78.52 | +2.7% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| HSBC | Yifeng Liu | $82 | $78.98 | -61.7% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $80 | $82.3 | -62.6% | Aug 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $90 | $86.58 | -58.0% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $157 | $90.03 | -26.7% | Aug 2, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $179 | $148.39 | -16.4% | Jun 12, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Leah Rush Cann | $310 | $147.47 | +44.7% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $180 | $152.03 | -16.0% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $160 | $141.83 | -25.3% | May 31, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Cory Kasimov | $120 | $125.67 | -44.0% | May 13, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $85 | $124.06 | -60.3% | May 9, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $151 | $122.13 | -29.5% | May 7, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $155 | $123.02 | -27.6% | May 3, 2024 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Bill Maughan | $106 | $125.59 | -50.5% | May 3, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $163 | $125.59 | -23.9% | May 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Luca Issi | $135 | $125.59 | -37.0% | May 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $95 | $125 | -55.6% | May 2, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $89 | $108.85 | -58.4% | Apr 24, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $125 | $110.59 | -41.6% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $143 | $107.41 | -33.2% | Mar 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $123 | $87.59 | -42.6% | Feb 22, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Hartaj Singh | $142 | $113.15 | -33.7% | Jan 2, 2024 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $191 | $121.14 | -10.8% | Jun 26, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $189.89 | +1.3% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $193.29 | +28.4% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $209 | $191.78 | -2.4% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Chardan Capital | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $212.4 | -10.8% | Dec 14, 2022 |
| Leerink Partners | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $197.54 | -52.4% | Dec 13, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg Hellweg | $150 | $123.64 | -30.0% | Sep 24, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $214 | $142.28 | -0.1% | May 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $199 | $155.05 | -7.1% | May 4, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Edward Tenthoff | $348 | $176.59 | +62.5% | Apr 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Matthew Harrison | $205 | $173.08 | -4.3% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $155 | $129.28 | -27.6% | Mar 8, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Michael Yee | $170 | $151.33 | -20.6% | Feb 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Gena Wang | $210 | $156.23 | -1.9% | Feb 24, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Tyler Van Buren | $200 | $172.74 | -6.6% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Emmanuel Papadakis | $175 | $154.96 | -18.3% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| UBS | Eliana Merle | $221 | $160.07 | +3.2% | Jan 21, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Jasper Hellweg | $350 | $216.06 | +63.4% | Jan 6, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Andrew Galler | $304 | $244.68 | +41.9% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Cory Kasimov | $165 | $284.02 | -23.0% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Nick Abbott | $145 | $234.46 | -32.3% | Jun 29, 2021 |
| Chardan Capital | Geulah Livshits | $188 | $185.01 | -12.2% | May 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MRNA the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationModerna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah.…
Historical context
All MRNA earningsHealthcare peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- LHFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+3.0% EPS+8.8% move
- AUROWFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+3.6% EPS0.0% move
- CHRWFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+2.9% EPS-11.1% move
- AURFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+3.6% EPS-0.6% move
- IPFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026+29.5% EPS+3.3% move
- FLEXFY2027 Q2 · October 28, 2026+11.3% EPS+11.6% move
Missed on EPS
- NOWFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-2.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CMGFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-7.1% EPS+2.7% move
- GOOGFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-11.3% EPS+1.6% move
- MGMFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-405.6% EPS-2.6% move
- CVNAFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-11.6% EPS-0.3% move
- GOOGMFY2026 Q3 · October 28, 2026-29.6% EPS+1.0% move
Get the MRNA recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-31T00:31:30.708903+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-31T00:31:30.705854+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-31. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.