Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1657.2%
Neutral621.4%
Bearish621.4%
International Paper Company · IP · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
IP: Q3 EBITDA improved, but inflation lowered 2026 outlook
International Paper's Q3 improvement supports a recovery case built on price realization, productivity and cost-out actions. The case remains conditional: softer demand, inflation, nonrecurring insurance proceeds and cash-flow pressure offset part of the operating progress.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$17.68B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.29
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $6.28B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
IPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IP FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove IP's +3.3% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in IP's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for IP after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management said Q3 adjusted EBITDA improved 56% sequentially and highlighted price realization, productivity and cost-out actions. It also lowered full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by roughly $110 million because of diesel, employee and other inflationary costs, while discussing a possible EMEA sale or spin-off with International Paper retaining about 20%.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered by roughly $110 million; management did not provide 2027 guidance.
Key takeaways
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially as price realization, productivity gains and cost-out actions offset softer demand and higher input costs.
- North America is expected to outpace industry demand by about 2% for the full year, according to management.
- The EMEA separation is progressing, but the potential transaction, capital structure and regulatory process remain unresolved.
Management priorities
- Finalize the EMEA separation and evaluate a potential sale or spin-off.
- Continue productivity reinvestment, price realization and cost-out actions through 2027.
- Ramp Riverdale, capture NORPAK synergies and simplify the business around customer and higher-growth markets.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$34.48Current
$35Low
$52.94Average
$80High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 23, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 1, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 14, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2015 |
| Dundee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 20, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $34.48. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $31.97 | +1.5% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $41.32 | +33.4% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $52 | $41.25 | +50.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.29 | +36.3% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.15 | +33.4% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $43.15 | +42.1% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hillary Cacanando | $50 | $43.15 | +45.0% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $42.41 | +76.9% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $46 | $37.36 | +33.4% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.67 | +21.8% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.76 | +13.1% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $48 | $36.47 | +39.2% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $36.57 | +16.0% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $39.53 | +74.0% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $48 | $42.61 | +39.2% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $44 | $40.32 | +27.6% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $39 | +56.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $40 | $39 | +16.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $51 | $42.39 | +47.9% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $40.52 | +45.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $55 | $39.06 | +59.5% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $37.67 | +27.6% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $57 | $38.63 | +65.3% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $38.63 | +4.4% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $57.8 | $46.64 | +67.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.08 | +53.7% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $44 | $45.88 | +27.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.96 | +59.5% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $47.72 | +71.1% | May 28, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $60 | $44.27 | +74.0% | May 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $66 | $55.77 | +91.4% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $57 | $48.08 | +65.3% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $52 | $46.12 | +50.8% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $56 | $45.59 | +62.4% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $45 | $46.28 | +30.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $52 | $43.25 | +50.8% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $52 | $44.04 | +50.8% | May 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $41 | $44.4 | +18.9% | May 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $57 | $42.1 | +65.3% | May 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $43 | $35.8 | +24.7% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $43 | $34.34 | +24.7% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Joseph Altobello | $70 | $34.49 | +103.0% | Aug 15, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $39 | $33.01 | +13.1% | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $35 | $32.87 | +1.5% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.7 | +16.0% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $47 | $41.92 | +36.3% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $47.95 | +68.2% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $56 | $47.18 | +62.4% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Cleveland Rueckert | $43 | $47.83 | +24.7% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| BNP Paribas | Justin Jordan | $60 | $51.07 | +74.0% | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $80 | $55.91 | +132.0% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $75 | $58.61 | +117.5% | Jun 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on IP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationInternational Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific Rim, Asia, and various other regions across the Americas. The company's business activities are structured into two principal divisions: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The Industrial Packaging segment is dedicated to producing a diverse range of containerboards, which encompass linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft.…
Historical context
All IP earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPG PPG Industries, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.1% | +4.4% | PPG raises 2026 EPS outlook after record Q3 |
| MAS Masco Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +2.4% | Masco raises 2026 outlook as plumbing leads growth |
| JCI Johnson Controls International plc | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.4% | +5.7% | JCI reports strong FY2026, plans higher FY2027 investment |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CRFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+12.6% EPS+2.9% move
- PPGFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+6.1% EPS+4.4% move
- UMBFFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+10.6% EPS-1.1% move
- UHSFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+0.6% EPS-2.9% move
- ACGLNFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+15.6% EPS-0.9% move
- RNRFY2026 Q3 · October 27, 2026+20.4% EPS-2.6% move
Get the IP recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-28T16:07:11.374620+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-28T01:23:13.546025+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-28T23:10:41.003800+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-28T23:10:41.000995+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.