Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold28 ratings
Bullish1657.2%
Neutral621.4%
Bearish621.4%
International Paper Company · IP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
International Paper: Strong Execution Meets a Narrower EBITDA Outlook
Q2 evidence supports an execution-led operating improvement case: box volumes outpaced the industry, mill performance improved and cost-out actions continued. The case is moderated by narrower EBITDA guidance, outage exposure and higher transportation and energy costs.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$18.91B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.04
Consensus $-0.03
EPS surprise
+233.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.00B
Consensus $6.19B
Revenue surprise
-3.0%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.2%
Event window
SPY move
+1.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.6%
Up to 20 sessions
IPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about IP FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did IP rise 1.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in IP's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for IP after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current quarter added the completed NORPAC acquisition, the Pine Hill roof-repair shutdown and progress toward the EMEA packaging separation. Box-volume growth remained positive and mill performance improved, while full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed and management identified greater cost and macro pressure.
Guidance delta
Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $2.35–$2.45 billion, with a $600 million second-half step-up expected.
Key takeaways
- North American box volumes rose 1.7% year over year and outpaced the industry, supporting price-mix.
- Mill performance improved by roughly 500 basis points despite a heavy outage schedule.
- The company highlighted a $533 million capex program spanning NORPAC, Riverdale, Dover, Waterloo and Lucca.
- Cost-out actions have generated more than $210 million of savings and 3,000-plus job reductions.
- Higher diesel, OCC and energy costs, Pine Hill downtime and softer EMEA demand remain risks.
Management priorities
- Complete the Riverdale ramp-up and reach full run rate by Q1 2027.
- Bring the Waterloo facility online by Q2 2027.
- Expand recycled containerboard capacity in Lucca and Romania.
- Finalize the EMEA packaging business separation on schedule.
- Continue 80/20 investments and cost-out actions through 2027.
Follow IP with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$35.71Previous close
$40Low
$53.54Average
$80High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 23, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 1, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 22, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 23, 2024 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 1, 2020 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2019 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 1, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 27, 2017 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 14, 2017 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 6, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 25, 2015 |
| Dundee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 20, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 15, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $35.71. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $41.32 | +28.8% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $52 | $41.25 | +45.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $42.29 | +31.6% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $43.15 | +28.8% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $49 | $43.15 | +37.2% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hillary Cacanando | $50 | $43.15 | +40.0% | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $61 | $42.41 | +70.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $46 | $37.36 | +28.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $36.67 | +17.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $39 | $31.76 | +9.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $48 | $36.47 | +34.4% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $36.57 | +12.0% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $39.53 | +68.0% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $48 | $42.61 | +34.4% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $44 | $40.32 | +23.2% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $54 | $39 | +51.2% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $40 | $39 | +12.0% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Anojja Shah | $51 | $42.39 | +42.8% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $40.52 | +40.0% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $55 | $39.06 | +54.0% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $37.67 | +23.2% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $57 | $38.63 | +59.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $36 | $38.63 | +0.8% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $57.8 | $46.64 | +61.9% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $46.08 | +48.4% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $44 | $45.88 | +23.2% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.96 | +54.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $47.72 | +65.2% | May 28, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $60 | $44.27 | +68.0% | May 5, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $66 | $55.77 | +84.8% | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $57 | $48.08 | +59.6% | Oct 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $52 | $46.12 | +45.6% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $56 | $45.59 | +56.8% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $45 | $46.28 | +26.0% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $52 | $43.25 | +45.6% | Jun 28, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $52 | $44.04 | +45.6% | May 30, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $41 | $44.4 | +14.8% | May 30, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Philip Ng | $57 | $42.1 | +59.6% | May 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Scott Heleniak | $43 | $35.8 | +20.4% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Roxland | $43 | $34.34 | +20.4% | Sep 21, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Joseph Altobello | $70 | $34.49 | +96.0% | Aug 15, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Matthew McKellar | $39 | $33.01 | +9.2% | Apr 28, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $35 | $32.87 | -2.0% | Oct 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $31.7 | +12.0% | Sep 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $47 | $41.92 | +31.6% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $47.95 | +62.4% | Apr 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Gabe Hajde | $56 | $47.18 | +56.8% | Jan 28, 2022 |
| UBS | Cleveland Rueckert | $43 | $47.83 | +20.4% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| BNP Paribas | Justin Jordan | $60 | $51.07 | +68.0% | Oct 19, 2021 |
| Stephens | Mark Connelly | $80 | $55.91 | +124.0% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $75 | $58.61 | +110.0% | Jun 11, 2021 |
Track every rating change on IP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationInternational Paper Company, established in 1898 and headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, functions as a leading global packaging enterprise. Its extensive operational footprint spans the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Pacific Rim, Asia, and various other regions across the Americas. The company's business activities are structured into two principal divisions: Industrial Packaging and Global Cellulose Fibers. The Industrial Packaging segment is dedicated to producing a diverse range of containerboards, which encompass linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium, and saturating kraft.…
Historical context
All IP earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
Get the IP recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-30T22:07:21.211828+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-04T01:23:15.205020+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-23T10:40:52.421276+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-23T10:40:52.418986+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-23. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.