Marathon Petroleum Corporation · MPC · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

MPC highlights resilient operations and midstream expansion despite a quarterly loss

The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive operating thesis for MPC: strong refining execution, seasonal demand and midstream expansion provide support, but the case depends on sustaining capture rates and managing regulatory, margin and working-capital risks.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $126.22B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $-0.62
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $30.15B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +0.9% Event window
SPY move -0.8% Same window
Abnormal move +1.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +8.6% Up to 20 sessions
MPCSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shifts emphasis from the prior quarter's record full-year results and planned capital allocation to Q1 execution: refining utilization was 89%, capture reached 104%, midstream adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year over year, and MPLX announced more than $1 billion of strategic acquisitions. Guidance sentiment remained maintained, while West Coast regulation, renewable-credit uncertainty and working-capital volatility stayed central risks.

Guidance delta

Maintained; Q2 guidance called for 2.8 MMb/d throughput at 94% utilization, with continued spending on high-return projects.

Key takeaways

  • High refining utilization and a record 104% capture rate supported operating performance despite heavy turnaround activity.
  • Midstream adjusted EBITDA increased 8% year over year, helped by strategic MPLX acquisitions and higher distributions.
  • Management pointed to summer-season demand, diesel and jet-fuel demand, and midstream expansion as growth drivers.
  • Operating cash flow was $1 billion and shareholder returns were $1.3 billion, while capital projects continued across the West Coast and Gulf Coast.

Management priorities

  • Complete the $700 million Los Angeles refinery infrastructure improvements by year-end 2025.
  • Advance the Galveston Bay distillate hydrotreater and Robinson jet-fuel flexibility project.
  • Close the BANGL pipeline acquisition and increase the Matterhorn Express stake as planned.
  • Capture incremental 45Z renewable-diesel credits while maintaining high utilization and commercial execution.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
MPC REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $35B Q4 '23 actual $36B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $32B Q1 '24 actual $33B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $37B Q2 '24 actual $38B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $34B Q3 '24 actual $35B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $33B Q2 '25 actual $34B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $33B Q3 '25 actual $35B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $31B Q4 '25 actual $33B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $33B Q1 '26 actual $35B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $41B Q2 '26 actual $52B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $46B Q4 '26 estimate $38B Q1 '27 estimate $36B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish2475.0%
Neutral825.0%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$432.36Previous close
$68Low
$249.26Average
$472High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
B of A Securities Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 2, 2026
Jefferies Hold BuyDowngradeSep 22, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainSep 21, 2026
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 14, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 14, 2026
Show 27 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $432.36. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesLloyd Byrne$413$402.38 -4.5%Sep 21, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$472$424.89 +9.2%Sep 21, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$445$404.77 +2.9%Sep 14, 2026
Morgan StanleyJoe Laetsch$453$407.14 +4.8%Sep 14, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$450$388.9 +4.1%Sep 8, 2026
See 73 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur.…

Historical context

All MPC earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-22T00:02:47.536505+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T08:30:44.909810+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T08:30:44.906981+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.