Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy32 ratings
Bullish2475.0%
Neutral825.0%
Bearish00.0%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation · MPC · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Marathon Petroleum Q1 2026: Record Operations, $5B Buyback, EPS Doubles Estimates
Marathon Petroleum delivered Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.65, more than double the $0.74 consensus, on $2.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA. Refinery utilization reached 89% with 99% margin capture and record-low unplanned downtime. Capital deployment is accelerating: $330 million into refining projects (jet fuel capacity at Garyville and Robinson, yield improvements at El Paso) and $2.4 billion via MPLX into natural-gas and NGL infrastructure. Shareholder returns remain front and center with $1 billion returned in Q1 plus a new $5 billion buyback authorization. Management reaffirmed its full-year outlook and guided 94% Q2 utilization, citing a tight global refining market with roughly 6 million bpd of capacity offline due to Middle East conflict. The stock traded 2.35% above benchmark on the report and drifted 2.57% subsequently, with the current price of $306.05 sitting near the analyst…
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$89.35B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationMarathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.65
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+123.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$34.57B
Consensus $33.42B
Revenue surprise
+3.4%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$306.05Current
$68Low
$200.19Average
$344High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 9, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 14, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 2, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 4, 2022 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 6, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Dec 26, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 19, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2016 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2015 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Perform | Upgrade | May 27, 2015 |
| S&P Capital IQ | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 3, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2014 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 30, 2014 |
| Simmons & Co. | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 2, 2013 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 23, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $306.05. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $343 | $315.82 | +12.1% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $335 | $294.06 | +9.5% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $283.74 | -5.6% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $283.74 | +9.5% | Jul 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $321 | $280.61 | +4.9% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $344 | $263.58 | +12.4% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $260.81 | -13.4% | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $248.05 | -7.2% | May 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $285 | $249.32 | -6.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $260.51 | -11.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $233 | $221.1 | -23.9% | Apr 24, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $220.27 | -24.8% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $223.52 | -25.5% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $225 | $203.91 | -26.5% | Feb 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $221 | $203.63 | -27.8% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $187.58 | -29.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $174 | $176.1 | -43.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $175.54 | -33.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $172.51 | -39.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $196 | $186.97 | -36.0% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $200 | $184.54 | -34.7% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $203 | $181.15 | -33.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $194 | $180.89 | -36.6% | Oct 13, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $189.06 | -38.2% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $192.24 | -34.7% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $196.44 | -28.1% | Sep 26, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $170 | $167.42 | -44.5% | Jun 18, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $193 | $147.35 | -36.9% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $141.15 | -47.4% | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joe Laetsch | $174 | $151.06 | -43.1% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $174 | $157.9 | -43.1% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $170 | $162.61 | -44.5% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $145 | $164.22 | -52.6% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $189 | $163.58 | -38.2% | Sep 14, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Doug Leggate | $200 | $165.56 | -34.7% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $231 | $165.46 | -24.5% | Jul 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $196 | $164.29 | -36.0% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $201 | $172.45 | -34.3% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $168 | $168.9 | -45.1% | Jun 14, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Justin Jenkins | $230 | $174.66 | -24.8% | May 30, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $190 | $177.86 | -37.9% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $203 | $179.56 | -33.7% | May 13, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $195 | $182.55 | -36.3% | May 6, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $202 | $212.27 | -34.0% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $204 | $216.25 | -33.3% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $227 | $214.96 | -25.8% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $160 | $128.38 | -47.7% | Mar 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $165 | $129.41 | -46.1% | Mar 9, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $123.85 | -53.3% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $153 | $125.67 | -50.0% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $128.52 | -46.1% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $122.08 | -49.4% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $109.75 | -53.3% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $117 | $95.79 | -61.8% | Aug 16, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $135 | $84.48 | -55.9% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $129 | $102.17 | -57.9% | Jun 14, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $93.42 | -64.1% | May 4, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $84.86 | -64.7% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Connor Lynagh | $115 | $84.08 | -62.4% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $90.98 | -64.1% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Prashant Rao | $85 | $72.81 | -72.2% | Jan 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $80 | $72.16 | -73.9% | Jan 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $88 | $69.93 | -71.2% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $73 | $63.11 | -76.1% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $73 | $62.66 | -76.1% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $68 | $55.29 | -77.8% | May 4, 2021 |
Track every rating change on MPC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.2×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.6%
Up to 20 sessions
MPCSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Capex outlook shifted from decreasing in Q4 2025 to increasing in Q1 2026. The prior quarter emphasized a 20% cut in refining capex to $700 million; Q1 saw $330 million deployed into refining projects with continued investment ahead. Margin capture moved from 105% in full-year 2025 to 99% in Q1 2026, still strong but no longer above 100%. A new $5 billion buyback authorization builds on the prior commitment to return $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2026. MPC also disclosed the first-time export of ULSD from Los Angeles to Australia and naphtha to Asia, and the purchase of roughly 10 million barrels of advantaged SPR crude directly from the U.S. DOE, neither of which were highlighted in the prior quarter.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year guidance and guided Q2 2026 refinery utilization to 94%. Guidance sentiment is unchanged from the prior quarter (maintained). No upward or downward revision to financial targets was indicated.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of $1.65 beat the $0.74 estimate by 123%; adjusted EBITDA reached $2.8 billion.
- Refinery utilization was 89% with 99% margin capture and record-low unplanned downtime.
- $1 billion returned to shareholders in Q1 alongside a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization.
- MPLX invested $2.4 billion in natural-gas and NGL infrastructure, with Gulf Coast fractionation facilities slated for 2028-2029.
- Middle East conflict has taken approximately 6 million bpd of global refining capacity offline, supporting elevated crack spreads.
Management priorities
- Expand jet fuel capacity: Robinson jet flexibility project online in Q3 (~10,000 bpd incremental jet).
- Advance MPLX growth projects including Gulf Coast fractionation and LPG export infrastructure.
- Execute the new $5 billion buyback authorization while sustaining dividend growth.
- Optimize renewable diesel operations and complete the Martinez turnaround.
- Leverage advantaged crude sourcing, including SPR purchases and record Canadian crude volumes.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T05:31:52.712173+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T05:31:52.709485+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.