Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold19 ratings
Bullish631.6%
Neutral1263.1%
Bearish15.3%
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. · LW · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q2 2025
Lamb Weston: resilient volume, but traffic and margin risks persist
The supplied analysis provides partial support for a resilient-demand thesis: volume and adjusted EBITDA improved, but soft traffic, pricing pressure, tariffs, and utilization risks keep the outlook conditional.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$6.90B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.87
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $1.49B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+10.0%
Event window
SPY move
-4.9%
Same window
Abnormal move
+14.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-13.5%
Up to 20 sessions
LWSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LW FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LW's +10.0% move after FY2025 Q3 earnings?What changed in LW's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for LW after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis highlights maintained full-year guidance, 9% volume growth, 6% adjusted EBITDA growth, a value-creation plan with Alex Partners, new product launches, and a large QSR rollout. Compared with the prior analysis, the operating narrative is more constructive, while traffic, tariff, inventory, and capacity risks remain.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year FY2025 guidance; the prior analysis had described guidance as lowered.
Key takeaways
- Management's analysis points to 9% volume growth and 6% adjusted EBITDA growth despite soft consumer demand.
- Savings initiatives and the Alex Partners value-creation plan are central to the operating response.
- New products and a large QSR rollout provide growth avenues, while tariffs, pricing pressure, and utilization remain risks.
Management priorities
- Execute cost, revenue, and working-capital initiatives
- Expand private-label and new-product channels
- Optimize capacity while focusing capital spending on modernization, maintenance, and environmental projects
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$51.96Current
$48Low
$64.28Average
$132High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 13, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 27, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 11, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 7, 2019 |
| CL King | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Vertical Group | Sell | Sell | Maintain | May 22, 2018 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2018 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 16, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $51.96. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $58 | $48.09 | +11.6% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $48.89 | +2.0% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $47.91 | +11.6% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Stephens | Pooran Sharma | $50 | $43.58 | -3.8% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $53.11 | +5.9% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $57 | $53.11 | +9.7% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $52 | $49.64 | +0.1% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $57 | $49.58 | +9.7% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $52 | $49.58 | +0.1% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $56 | $49.58 | +7.8% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $50 | $46.6 | -3.8% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $48 | $45.23 | -7.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $46.51 | +3.9% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $46 | $41.84 | -11.5% | Dec 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $42.8 | +5.9% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $42.64 | -7.6% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $43.13 | -5.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $43.94 | -3.8% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $62.01 | +21.2% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $58.08 | +27.0% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $58.08 | +30.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $58.08 | +25.1% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $56 | $52.49 | +7.8% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $57 | $52.68 | +9.7% | Mar 19, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $90 | $77.28 | +73.2% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Peter Galbo | $80 | $78.22 | +54.0% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $87 | $78.22 | +67.4% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $74 | $67.61 | +42.4% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $77 | $66.58 | +48.2% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $65.44 | +44.3% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $96 | $79.07 | +84.8% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $105 | $79.78 | +102.1% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Marc Torrente | $98 | $81.53 | +88.6% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $132 | $81.53 | +154.0% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $115 | $81.53 | +121.3% | Apr 5, 2024 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $107 | $99.68 | +105.9% | Jan 6, 2023 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company's product portfolio encompasses frozen potatoes, various commercial ingredients, and appetizers. These are offered both under its flagship "Lamb Weston" brand and tailored to numerous customer labels. Furthermore, the company leverages its proprietary brands, such as Grown in Idaho and Alexia, alongside other licensed trademarks and private label brands for retailers. Beyond potatoes, Lamb Weston also maintains interests in the vegetable and dairy sectors. Its extensive client base includes both retail and foodservice channels, ranging from major grocery chains, mass merchandisers, club stores, and specialty retailers to diverse businesses, educational institutions, independent and regional chain restaurants, and convenience stores. Established in 1950, the corporation maintains its principal executive offices in Eagle, Idaho.
Historical context
All LW earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.2% | +3.7% | PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure |
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.4% | +2.4% | Constellation Brands beats expectations and maintains FY27 EPS guidance |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-03-20T00:03:04.445791+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-13T22:20:44.294244+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-13T22:20:44.292542+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-13. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.