Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold30 ratings
Bullish1136.7%
Neutral1756.7%
Bearish26.6%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Fastenal Company · FAST · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
Fastenal Posts 14.7% Daily Sales Growth as Digital and FMI Expansion Drive Share Gains
Fastenal's Q2 2026 results demonstrate accelerating double-digit sales growth driven by share gains rather than macro tailwinds. Operating margin held steady despite widening gross-margin compression, underscoring the company's ability to offset cost pressure through SG&A leverage and operational discipline. The digital and FMI device ecosystem continues to function as a structural growth engine and leading indicator for future revenue. A CEO transition introduces execution risk, but management signals continuity in strategic priorities. The initial negative market reaction gave way to a positive drift, suggesting investors looked past near-term margin headwinds toward the durable growth platform.
Reported Before market openNASDAQIndustrials
$55.19B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationFastenal Company, along with its associated entities, operates as a global wholesale supplier of industrial and construction materials, with significant operations throughout North America, including the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and other international markets. Branded as Fastenal, the company offers a comprehensive range of fasteners, such as threaded bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and washers, which are vital for manufacturing processes, building developments, and equipment servicing. Beyond fasteners, its product catalog extends to diverse hardware and miscellaneous items like pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, and rivets, along with their related accessories.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.33
Consensus $0
EPS surprise
+0.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.39B
Consensus $2.34B
Revenue surprise
+2.1%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$47.78Current
$42Low
$54.37Average
$86High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 4, 2025 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 8, 2025 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 21, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 14, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2020 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 27, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 21, 2020 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 12, 2019 | |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 4, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 13, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2017 |
| Avondale Partners | Market Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2017 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2015 |
| Northcoast Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Cleveland Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 28, 2014 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $47.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $52 | $45.36 | +8.8% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Redburn Partners | William Blunt | $55 | $46.49 | +15.1% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $46.13 | -1.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.11 | +0.5% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $48.6 | -1.6% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $46.1 | -3.7% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Barclays | Guy Hardwick | $46 | $44.73 | -3.7% | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $42 | $45.8 | -12.1% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $50 | $45.8 | +4.6% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $47.16 | +0.5% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $45 | $47.75 | -5.8% | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $51 | $47.87 | +6.7% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Amit Mehrotra | $46 | $44.11 | -3.7% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $42.62 | -10.0% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $52 | $42 | +8.8% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $42.33 | -5.8% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $47.45 | +2.6% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $40 | $43.13 | -16.3% | Jul 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $76 | $77.16 | +59.1% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $72 | $76.82 | +50.7% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Butler | $86 | $76.82 | +80.0% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $80 | $76.82 | +67.4% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $75 | $76.82 | +57.0% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $56 | $70.55 | +17.2% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $72 | $65.18 | +50.7% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $74 | $63.88 | +54.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $67 | $64.76 | +40.2% | May 29, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $66 | $70.45 | +38.1% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $64 | $70.45 | +33.9% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Nigel Coe | $62 | $69.97 | +29.8% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $71 | $69.88 | +48.6% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $59 | $75.9 | +23.5% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $57 | $55.85 | +19.3% | Oct 11, 2023 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $50 | $52.56 | +4.6% | Apr 13, 2023 |
| UBS | Chris Snyder | $50 | $48.3 | +4.6% | Jul 26, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $48 | $47.32 | +0.5% | Jul 14, 2022 |
Track every rating change on FAST the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-2.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-3.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+4.5%
Up to 20 sessions
FASTSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Daily sales growth accelerated to 14.7% from 12.4% in Q1. Gross-margin compression widened from 40 bps to 75 bps year over year, but operating margin remained stable through SG&A leverage. Digital sales ticked up to 61.6% of total from 61.5% prior quarter. Management tone shifted from cautious in Q1 to confident in Q2, and guidance sentiment moved from not provided to maintained. The quarter also introduced a CEO transition to Jeffery Watts with strategic pillars unchanged, and $350M was returned to shareholders.
Guidance delta
Guidance sentiment was maintained, a step up from the prior quarter when no explicit guidance was provided. Management did not issue numerical targets but signaled confidence in continued growth through technology deployment, international expansion, and disciplined capital allocation. The full-year capex plan of $320M (approximately 3.5% of sales) was reaffirmed, and the capex outlook remains increasing.
Key takeaways
- Double-digit top-line growth of 14.7% was driven by share gains rather than a favorable macro backdrop.
- Operating margin held steady despite 75 bps of gross-margin compression, thanks to SG&A leverage and cost control.
- Digital sales reached 61.6% of total, up 60 bps year over year, with a target of 63-64% by end of 2026.
- Contract count grew over 7% YoY; sites spending $50K+ per month grew 16.5%, delivering 26% revenue growth at those sites.
- Capital allocation remained disciplined: $60M quarterly capex, $320M planned for full-year 2026, and $350M returned to shareholders.
- CEO transition to Jeffery Watts was announced; strategic pillars of sales effectiveness, services, and market expansion remain unchanged.
Management priorities
- Scale digital and FMI technologies to deepen customer penetration and drive higher-margin growth.
- Accelerate international growth, especially in Europe and other markets outside North America.
- Maintain disciplined capex at approximately 3.5% of sales focused on hub capacity, automation, and IT infrastructure.
- Pursue potential acquisitions to fast-track global supply chain capabilities.
- Return excess cash to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases.
Related earnings events
IndustrialsURI · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026United Rentals Q2: Record Revenue, Raised Guidance, and a Possible Investment-Grade UpgradeNSC · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Norfolk Southern Beats on Volume Strength as Intermodal and Coal Drive Q2 GrowthHON · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Honeywell Q2: Beat and Raise as Portfolio Reshaping Nears Completion
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-14T18:02:57.229422+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-29T01:23:15.868211+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T20:21:23.515763+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T20:21:23.513489+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.