Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Chipotle Q1 2026: Slight Beat on Revenue and EPS, Comp Sales Edge Positive, Guidance Maintained

Chipotle delivered a modest Q1 2026 beat, with revenue of $3.09 billion (up 7.4% YoY) and comparable sales up just 0.5%, narrowly ahead of consensus on both EPS and revenue. The market reacted positively on the print (+3.0% on the day vs. +1.0% for the benchmark) but the stock subsequently drifted 6.3% lower, suggesting investors remain skeptical that menu innovation, rewards relaunch, and technology rollouts can reaccelerate comp growth meaningfully. Management maintained full-year comparable-sales guidance at roughly flat and struck a confident tone on the Recipe for Growth pillars, but with comps barely positive and cost pressures persisting, the path to durable reacceleration is unproven.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $43.92B market cap
90quality score

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.24 Consensus $0
EPS surprise +1.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.09B Consensus $3.07B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '27 estimate $3B Q2 '27 estimate $4B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4669.7%
Neutral2030.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$34.24Current
$30.1Low
$46.74Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainJul 13, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainJul 13, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight NeutralUpgradeJun 5, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight OverweightDowngradeJun 3, 2026
Argus Research Buy HoldUpgradeMay 5, 2026
Guggenheim Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 1, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainApr 30, 2026
Stephens & Co. Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainApr 30, 2026
Show 58 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $34.24. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$41$35.25 +19.7%Jul 13, 2026
Morgan StanleyBrian Harbour$37$29.24 +8.1%Jun 3, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$42$32.98 +22.7%Apr 30, 2026
StephensAnalyst unavailable$39$32.98 +13.9%Apr 30, 2026
BernsteinJeffrey Bernstein$38$32.98 +11.0%Apr 30, 2026
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$41$35.83 +19.7%Apr 21, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$45$36.3 +31.4%Apr 17, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$36$39.93 +5.1%Feb 5, 2026
Deutsche BankLauren Silberman$48$39.92 +40.2%Feb 4, 2026
Telsey AdvisorySarang Vora$48$38.61 +40.2%Feb 4, 2026
See 159 more

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Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +3.0% Event window
SPY move +1.0% Same window
Abnormal move +2.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.3% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Revenue grew 7.4% YoY to $3.09 billion, narrowly beating the $3.07 billion consensus. Comparable sales turned slightly positive at +0.5%. EPS of $0.24 edged past the $0.24 estimate. Digital sales held at 38.6% of total. New leadership hires -- Chief Brand Officer Fernando Machado and Chief Digital Officer Arlie Sisson -- signal a sharpened focus on brand and digital. A zip-line drone delivery pilot launched with plans to expand in Q2, and the AI assistant AVA now supports GM scheduling and operational insights. The Chipotle Kitchen digital makeline display was rolled out to over 100 restaurants.

Guidance delta

Full-year comparable-sales guidance remains flat. Pricing is expected to run approximately 1% in Q1, 1.5% in Q2, and 1-2% for the full year. Capex is increasing, with accelerated equipment rollout to 2,000 locations by year-end and roughly 350 new restaurant openings planned. Management's overall guidance sentiment was maintained -- no raise, no cut.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 revenue grew 7.4% YoY to $3.09B, with comparable sales up 0.5%, driven by new menu items, rewards relaunch, and technology upgrades.
  • The Recipe for Growth pillars -- operational equipment, digital tools, menu innovation, hospitality, talent, and global expansion -- are showing early momentum.
  • Full-year comparable-sales guidance remains flat; pricing expected at ~1% Q1, ~1.5% Q2, and 1-2% for the full year.
  • Capex includes accelerating equipment rollout to 2,000 locations by year-end and opening ~350 new restaurants, with international openings in Mexico, South Korea, and Europe.
  • New hires -- Chief Brand Officer Fernando Machado and Chief Digital Officer Arlie Sisson -- are expected to strengthen brand marketing and digital engagement.

Management priorities

  • Deploy high-efficiency equipment to 2,000 restaurants by year-end
  • Expand the drone delivery pilot to additional stores in Q2
  • Launch two more limited-time offers and new side/beverage innovations later in the year
  • Scale the refreshed rewards program and single-scan mobile checkout feature
  • Open new partner-operated restaurants in Mexico, South Korea, and Europe; monitor Middle East rollout

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T02:11:52.829325+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T02:11:52.826505+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.