Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Chipotle leans on efficiency upgrades as comparable sales soften

The current analysis supports a mixed operating picture: Chipotle is investing in equipment, digital engagement, new restaurants, international expansion, and catering, while soft comparable sales and cost, consumer, and execution risks remain material. The evidence supports a potential improvement narrative only if these initiatives translate into traffic, productivity, and sustainable margins.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $41.51B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.33 Consensus $0.33
EPS surprise +1.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.06B Consensus $3.11B
Revenue surprise -1.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -13.3% Event window
SPY move +0.0% Same window
Abnormal move -13.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 6.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -6.2% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about CMG FY2025 Q2

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the focus shifted toward a broader high-efficiency equipment rollout, a catering-platform test, AI-enhanced loyalty engagement, and continued expansion. At the same time, comparable-sales momentum remained weak and the full-year outlook was described as flat.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the analysis describes a flat full-year comparable-sales outlook.

Key takeaways

  • Q2 sales grew modestly while comparable sales were flat to negative, but management remained optimistic about future growth.
  • Back-of-house technology upgrades are intended to improve labor and food-cost efficiency and support catering.
  • Summer marketing, limited-time offers, loyalty initiatives, and AI-enhanced personalization supported engagement.
  • The company remains focused on restaurant openings, international expansion, and a catering-platform test.

Management priorities

  • Complete the high-efficiency equipment rollout
  • Scale the catering-platform test
  • Use limited-time offers, loyalty, and personalization to support traffic
  • Continue restaurant openings and international expansion

Follow CMG with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.23 Q1 '24 actual $0.27, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.32 Q2 '24 actual $0.34, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.25 Q3 '24 actual $0.27, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.33 Q2 '25 actual $0.33, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.29 Q3 '25 actual $0.29, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.24 Q4 '25 actual $0.25, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.24 Q1 '26 actual $0.24, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.32 Q2 '26 actual $0.33, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q4 '26 estimate $0.28 Q1 '27 estimate $0.31
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4568.2%
Neutral2131.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$32.36Current
$30.1Low
$46.23Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 1, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $32.36. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$40$36.9 +23.6%Aug 24, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$45$37.15 +39.1%Aug 4, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$50$38.49 +54.5%Jul 30, 2026
StephensJim Salera$40$34.24 +23.6%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$44$34.24 +36.0%Jul 30, 2026
See 173 more

Track every rating change on CMG the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

All CMG earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Get the CMG recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:22.444131+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T09:46:03.502408+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T09:46:03.499692+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.