Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

Chipotle Maintains Outlook as Comps Slip and Expansion Continues

The call supports a cautiously constructive growth case: restaurant expansion, digital sales, limited-time offers, and operating initiatives provide potential demand support, but softer comparable sales and cost risks mean execution—not growth plans alone—will determine whether momentum holds.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $39.47B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.28
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $2.97B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +1.6% Event window
SPY move +2.1% Same window
Abnormal move -0.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +2.5% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shows sales growth alongside a 0.4% comparable-sales decline, while digital mix, new openings, Honey Chicken, equipment upgrades, and international development were emphasized. Guidance sentiment remained maintained, but tariff, inflation, and consumer-demand concerns remain prominent.

Guidance delta

Maintained versus the prior quarter; the analysis describes low-single-digit full-year comparable-sales guidance and expected positive transaction growth in the second half.

Key takeaways

  • Sales increased 6% year over year, while comparable sales declined 0.4% amid consumer and weather headwinds.
  • Digital sales reached 35.4% of total sales, and 57 new restaurants opened.
  • Management highlighted Honey Chicken, equipment upgrades, marketing, and international partnerships as growth initiatives.
  • The next test is whether traffic and transactions improve while tariff, labor, and inflation risks remain manageable.

Management priorities

  • Advance restaurant openings toward the 7,000-unit North American ambition.
  • Complete the produce-slicer rollout and expand the equipment package.
  • Use limited-time offers, marketing, digital initiatives, and catering tests to support traffic.
  • Develop international locations through the Al Shaya and Alcea partnerships.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.23 Q1 '24 actual $0.27, beat Q2 '24 estimate $0.32 Q2 '24 actual $0.34, beat Q3 '24 estimate $0.25 Q3 '24 actual $0.27, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.33 Q2 '25 actual $0.33, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.29 Q3 '25 actual $0.29, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.24 Q4 '25 actual $0.25, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.24 Q1 '26 actual $0.24, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.32 Q2 '26 actual $0.33, beat Q3 '26 estimate $0.29 Q4 '26 estimate $0.28 Q1 '27 estimate $0.31
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4568.2%
Neutral2131.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$30.77Previous close
$30.1Low
$46.23Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 8, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 1, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $30.77. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$40$36.9 +30.0%Aug 24, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$45$37.15 +46.2%Aug 4, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$50$38.49 +62.5%Jul 30, 2026
StephensJim Salera$40$34.24 +30.0%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$44$34.24 +43.0%Jul 30, 2026
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

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Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-09T00:03:27.736600+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-08T10:10:46.391801+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-08T10:10:46.388806+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-08. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.