Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. · CMG · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Chipotle enters FY2025 with growth investments—and execution risks

The supplied analysis supports a balanced view: Chipotle has multiple demand and productivity levers, but the next-year case depends on executing restaurant expansion, throughput upgrades, LTOs, and digital initiatives while containing cost and external risks.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical $40.52B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.24
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $2.85B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.6% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -3.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -10.5% Up to 20 sessions
CMGSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management moved from a prior focus on operational initiatives and expansion plans to a maintained FY2025 outlook with more emphasis on throughput modernization, pricing discipline, avocado sourcing, and tariff exposure.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its FY2025 outlook, with low- to mid-single-digit comparable-sales growth and roughly 2% pricing expected.

Key takeaways

  • Management emphasized throughput, kitchen modernization, and digital personalization as operating priorities.
  • Restaurant expansion, Chipotle Lanes, LTOs, and international partnerships remain central growth drivers.
  • The outlook is maintained, but weather, tariffs, food costs, labor inflation, and execution remain watch items.

Management priorities

  • Roll out produce slicers and other back-of-house equipment
  • Improve throughput and guest retention through staffing and digital personalization
  • Expand Chipotle Lanes and international development

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
CMG REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $3B Q1 '24 actual $3B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $3B Q2 '24 actual $3B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $3B Q3 '24 actual $3B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $3B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '27 estimate $3B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy66 ratings
Bullish4568.2%
Neutral2131.8%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$30.4Current
$30.1Low
$46.23Average
$70High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 29, 2026
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainSep 1, 2026
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainSep 1, 2026
Baird Neutral OutperformDowngradeAug 24, 2026
BTIG Buy BuyMaintainAug 5, 2026
Show 61 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $30.4. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Robert W. BairdChris O'Cull$40$36.9 +31.6%Aug 24, 2026
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$45$37.15 +48.0%Aug 4, 2026
D.A. DavidsonAnalyst unavailable$50$38.49 +64.5%Jul 30, 2026
StephensJim Salera$40$34.24 +31.6%Jul 30, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$44$34.24 +44.7%Jul 30, 2026
See 173 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Historical context

All CMG earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-21T00:01:13.267231+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-12T18:10:44.199309+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-12T18:10:44.196370+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-12. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.