Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2261.1%
Bearish25.6%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · ADM · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
ADM holds guidance as policy pressure weighs on crush margins
The call supports a conditional recovery case rather than a clean growth signal: Nutrition growth, Decatur East, cost savings and partnerships are potential offsets, but policy, trade and crush-margin pressure remain material.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$38.50B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.69
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $22.05B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.7%
Event window
SPY move
-0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-2.2%
Up to 20 sessions
ADMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ADM FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove ADM's +1.7% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in ADM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for ADM after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management again maintained guidance but now framed the year toward its lower end. The current analysis highlights a sharp AS&O profit decline, continued policy and trade pressure, and a more explicit reliance on Decatur East, self-help savings and partnerships for improvement.
Guidance delta
Full-year EPS guidance was reaffirmed, with management expecting results toward the lower end of the range.
Key takeaways
- Management said Q1 adjusted EPS and segment profit met guidance despite macro headwinds.
- AS&O profit fell 52% amid biofuel-policy and trade uncertainty, while Nutrition operating profit grew 13%.
- The Decatur East ramp-up, cost savings, automation and partnerships are the main recovery priorities.
- The setup remains mixed: operational progress is offset by crush-margin, policy and trade risks.
Management priorities
- Complete the Decatur East plant ramp-up
- Deliver the $200 million to $300 million cost-savings target for the year
- Advance automation and digitization across manufacturing
- Develop new solutions through strategic partnerships
- Continue network optimization and selective plant closures
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$79.89Current
$50Low
$72.94Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | May 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2020 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 8, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 14, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 28, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2016 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 7, 2015 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 5, 2014 |
| Standpoint | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $79.89. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $90 | $79.87 | +12.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven K Haynes | $79 | $79.87 | -1.1% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $85.11 | -24.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $95 | $80.24 | +18.9% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $78.02 | +12.7% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $76.61 | -27.4% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.19 | +6.4% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $67.52 | -14.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $63 | $67.39 | -21.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven Haynes | $50 | $60.2 | -37.4% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $59 | $60.12 | -26.1% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $64 | $62.7 | -19.9% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $60 | $58.27 | -24.9% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $74 | $58.27 | -7.4% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $64 | $58.27 | -19.9% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $58 | $57.07 | -27.4% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $67 | $57.07 | -16.1% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $60 | $54.81 | -24.9% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $117 | $84.14 | +46.5% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $90 | +15.2% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $95 | $92.18 | +18.9% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $100 | $94.46 | +25.2% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $100 | $94.57 | +25.2% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stephens | Ben Bienvenu | $67 | $62.71 | -16.1% | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $60 | $60.46 | -24.9% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ADM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArcher-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services.…
Historical context
All ADM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +2.2% | +3.7% | PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure |
| STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.4% | +2.4% | Constellation Brands beats expectations and maintains FY27 EPS guidance |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +27.8% | +7.5% | Lamb Weston raises FY2027 outlook as North America volume growth continues |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-24T23:45:19.569357+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T04:10:42.353187+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T04:10:42.350407+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.