Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2261.1%
Bearish25.6%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · ADM · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
ADM holds guidance while margin and policy risks persist
ADM's current analysis supports a mixed picture: management described operational progress and a confident execution plan, but margin pressure and policy and trade uncertainty still limit visibility. The key question is whether cost reductions and targeted investments can offset those external headwinds.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$39.97B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $1.07
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $22.77B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.7%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-3.6%
Up to 20 sessions
ADMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ADM FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove ADM's -5.1% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in ADM's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ADM after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, guidance sentiment shifted from lowered to maintained and management tone from cautious to confident. The current analysis adds a $500–$750 million savings plan, expanded share-repurchase authorization, and continued portfolio simplification, while margin and policy concerns remain.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis says adjusted earnings met guidance. No increase or reduction was supplied.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis says adjusted earnings met guidance, while lower segment margins remain a central issue.
- Management is targeting $500–$750 million of savings over three to five years through cost reductions and operational efficiencies.
- Renewable diesel, starches and sweeteners, and nutrition were identified as areas of operational progress.
- Biofuel-policy uncertainty, trade volatility, and Decatur East execution remain important offsets to the improvement plan.
Management priorities
- Deliver the cost-reduction program and continue portfolio simplification.
- Continue targeted capital spending on renewable diesel capacity and plant digitization.
- Invest in biosolutions, destination marketing, and decarbonization platforms.
- Maintain dividend growth and use share repurchases opportunistically.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$82.93Previous close
$50Low
$73.83Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | May 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2020 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 8, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 14, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 28, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2016 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 7, 2015 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 5, 2014 |
| Standpoint | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $82.93. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $75 | $80.5 | -9.6% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $90 | $79.87 | +8.5% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven K Haynes | $79 | $79.87 | -4.7% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $85.11 | -27.6% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $95 | $80.24 | +14.6% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $78.02 | +8.5% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $76.61 | -30.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.19 | +2.5% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $67.52 | -18.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $63 | $67.39 | -24.0% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven Haynes | $50 | $60.2 | -39.7% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $59 | $60.12 | -28.9% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $64 | $62.7 | -22.8% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $60 | $58.27 | -27.6% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $74 | $58.27 | -10.8% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $64 | $58.27 | -22.8% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $58 | $57.07 | -30.1% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $67 | $57.07 | -19.2% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $60 | $54.81 | -27.6% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $117 | $84.14 | +41.1% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $90 | +10.9% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $95 | $92.18 | +14.6% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $100 | $94.46 | +20.6% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $100 | $94.57 | +20.6% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stephens | Ben Bienvenu | $67 | $62.71 | -19.2% | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $60 | $60.46 | -27.6% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ADM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArcher-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-28T08:23:18.980619+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T07:10:47.362026+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T07:10:47.359292+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.