Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · ADM · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

ADM holds guidance while margin and policy risks persist

ADM's current analysis supports a mixed picture: management described operational progress and a confident execution plan, but margin pressure and policy and trade uncertainty still limit visibility. The key question is whether cost reductions and targeted investments can offset those external headwinds.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive $39.97B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $1.07
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $22.77B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -5.1% Event window
SPY move +0.7% Same window
Abnormal move -5.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.3× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.6% Up to 20 sessions
ADMSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, guidance sentiment shifted from lowered to maintained and management tone from cautious to confident. The current analysis adds a $500–$750 million savings plan, expanded share-repurchase authorization, and continued portfolio simplification, while margin and policy concerns remain.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis says adjusted earnings met guidance. No increase or reduction was supplied.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis says adjusted earnings met guidance, while lower segment margins remain a central issue.
  • Management is targeting $500–$750 million of savings over three to five years through cost reductions and operational efficiencies.
  • Renewable diesel, starches and sweeteners, and nutrition were identified as areas of operational progress.
  • Biofuel-policy uncertainty, trade volatility, and Decatur East execution remain important offsets to the improvement plan.

Management priorities

  • Deliver the cost-reduction program and continue portfolio simplification.
  • Continue targeted capital spending on renewable diesel capacity and plant digitization.
  • Invest in biosolutions, destination marketing, and decarbonization platforms.
  • Maintain dividend growth and use share repurchases opportunistically.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ADM EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.43 Q4 '23 actual $1.36, miss Q1 '24 estimate $1.36 Q1 '24 actual $1.46, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.22 Q2 '24 actual $1.03, miss Q3 '24 estimate $1.24 Q3 '24 actual $1.09, miss Q2 '25 estimate $0.82 Q2 '25 actual $0.93, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.85 Q3 '25 actual $0.92, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.80 Q4 '25 actual $0.87, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.64 Q1 '26 actual $0.71, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.42 Q2 '26 actual $1.84, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.57 Q4 '26 estimate $1.33 Q1 '27 estimate $1.39
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2261.1%
Bearish25.6%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$82.93Previous close
$50Low
$73.83Average
$100High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 16, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Underweight UnderweightMaintainOct 12, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 17, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeAug 5, 2026
BMO Capital Market Perform Market PerformMaintainAug 5, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 5, 2026
Show 31 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $82.93. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Coker PalmerThomas Palmer$75$80.5 -9.6%Oct 12, 2026
BarclaysBenjamin Theuer$90$79.87 +8.5%Aug 5, 2026
Morgan StanleySteven K Haynes$79$79.87 -4.7%Aug 5, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$60$85.11 -27.6%Jul 20, 2026
UBSManav Gupta$95$80.24 +14.6%Jun 15, 2026
See 21 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services.…

Historical context

All ADM earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-28T08:23:18.980619+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-16T07:10:47.362026+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-16T07:10:47.359292+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-16. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.