Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2158.3%
Bearish38.4%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · ADM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
ADM Beats EPS Estimates, Raises Guidance on Ethanol and Nutrition Strength
ADM delivered a Q1 FY2026 earnings beat driven by robust ethanol and soybean crush margins, supported by the EPA's finalized Renewable Volume Obligation. The company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, reflecting confidence in biofuel policy tailwinds and double-digit growth in nutrition flavors and natural colors. However, revenue fell short of consensus, and mark-to-market volatility alongside trade policy uncertainty remain meaningful risks that could push results toward the lower end of the new range.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$38.74B market cap
90quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationArcher-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.71
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+10.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$20.49B
Consensus $21.35B
Revenue surprise
-4.0%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$80.38Current
$50Low
$72.88Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | May 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 15, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 5, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2020 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 8, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 14, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 28, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2016 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 7, 2015 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 5, 2014 |
| Standpoint | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $80.38. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $85.11 | -25.4% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $95 | $80.24 | +18.2% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $78.02 | +12.0% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $76.61 | -27.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.19 | +5.7% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $67.52 | -15.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $63 | $67.39 | -21.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven Haynes | $50 | $60.2 | -37.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $59 | $60.12 | -26.6% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $64 | $62.7 | -20.4% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $60 | $58.27 | -25.4% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $74 | $58.27 | -7.9% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $64 | $58.27 | -20.4% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $58 | $57.07 | -27.8% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $67 | $57.07 | -16.6% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $60 | $54.81 | -25.4% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $117 | $84.14 | +45.6% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $90 | +14.5% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $95 | $92.18 | +18.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $100 | $94.46 | +24.4% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $100 | $94.57 | +24.4% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stephens | Ben Bienvenu | $67 | $62.71 | -16.6% | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $60 | $60.46 | -25.4% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ADM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.2%
Up to 20 sessions
ADMSPY benchmark
Follow ADM with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Adjusted EPS of $0.71 beat the consensus estimate of $0.641 by 10.8%, while revenue of $20.49B missed estimates of $21.35B by 4.0%. The stock posted an abnormal move of +3.03% on the earnings session, with volume at 2.88x baseline, and subsequently drifted up 6.21%. Key positives included strong ethanol margins from the EPA's RVO finalized March 27, approximately 300,000 metric tonnes of CO2 sequestered in Q1, and the expectation that the 45Z carbon policy will add roughly $150 million to full-year earnings. A $275 million mark-to-market charge in Q1 tempered the headline result.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70. The prior guidance range was not specified in the supplied analysis. Capex guidance remains stable at $1.3-$1.5 billion, and the dividend commitment was reaffirmed. Guidance sentiment was characterized as raised, with management tone described as confident and a bullish score of 82 out of 100.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EPS of $0.71 beat consensus by 10.8%; revenue of $20.49B missed by 4.0%.
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to $4.15-$4.70.
- Ethanol and soybean crush margins strengthened on the EPA's finalized RVO (March 27).
- Nutrition flavors and natural colors posted double-digit revenue growth.
- The 45Z carbon policy is expected to add approximately $150 million to full-year earnings.
- ADM sequestered roughly 300,000 metric tonnes of CO2 in Q1.
Management priorities
- Expand the advanced nutrition portfolio with natural colors and flavors.
- Develop functional health solutions targeting digestive, metabolic, and immune health.
- Scale biosolutions including starch-based fabric softener components.
- Advance precision fermentation and animal-free protein projects.
- Leverage carbon capture assets to supply high-purity CO2, renewable natural gas, and sustainable aviation fuel.
- Implement AI and automation to reduce transaction and manufacturing costs.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-30T05:01:22.689747+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-30T05:01:22.687490+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.