Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold36 ratings
Bullish1233.3%
Neutral2261.1%
Bearish25.6%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · ADM · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
ADM: Cost Discipline and Biofuel Policy Support the H2 Setup
The current analysis supports a cautiously constructive operating thesis for ADM: cost discipline, the Decatur East ramp and potential biofuel-policy support provide identifiable drivers, but policy, commodity-margin and execution risks remain material.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$39.75B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.93
Consensus $0.82
EPS surprise
+13.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$21.17B
Consensus $22.03B
Revenue surprise
-3.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+6.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.1%
Up to 20 sessions
ADMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about ADM FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ADM rise 6.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in ADM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for ADM after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis points to Decatur East being back online, a larger three-to-five-year cost-savings target, lower capex, additional portfolio actions and clearer emphasis on biofuel policy support. Guidance sentiment remained maintained.
Guidance delta
Maintained: management's full-year 2025 EPS guidance is around $4 per share.
Key takeaways
- Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.93, while full-year 2025 EPS guidance remained around $4 per share.
- Decatur East is back online, with an expected $20–$25 million quarterly cost benefit supporting Nutrition.
- Management highlighted cost savings, lower planned capex, portfolio optimization and biofuel policy support as key operating themes.
Management priorities
- Execute cost savings and capital discipline while reducing capex.
- Scale Decatur East and grow flavors, health and wellness, probiotics and specialty ingredients.
- Advance portfolio optimization, decarbonization capabilities and biofuel production.
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$82.47Previous close
$50Low
$72.94Average
$100High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | May 8, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 22, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 25, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 27, 2021 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2020 |
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Monness Crespi Hardt | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Mar 2, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 8, 2018 |
| Buckingham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 1, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 14, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2016 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 12, 2016 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 28, 2016 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2016 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 7, 2015 |
| Miller Tabak | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2014 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Feb 5, 2014 |
| Standpoint | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 1, 2012 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $82.47. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $90 | $79.87 | +9.1% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven K Haynes | $79 | $79.87 | -4.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $85.11 | -27.2% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $95 | $80.24 | +15.2% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $78.02 | +9.1% | May 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $76.61 | -29.7% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $79.19 | +3.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $67.52 | -17.5% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $63 | $67.39 | -23.6% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Steven Haynes | $50 | $60.2 | -39.4% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $59 | $60.12 | -28.5% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $64 | $62.7 | -22.4% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Andrew Strelzik | $60 | $58.27 | -27.2% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $74 | $58.27 | -10.3% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Samuelson | $64 | $58.27 | -22.4% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $58 | $57.07 | -29.7% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $67 | $57.07 | -18.8% | Mar 12, 2024 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theurer | $60 | $54.81 | -27.2% | Mar 11, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Sam Margolin | $117 | $84.14 | +41.9% | Aug 12, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $90 | +11.6% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Barclays | Benjamin Theuer | $95 | $92.18 | +15.2% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Steve Byrne | $100 | $94.46 | +21.3% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Vincent Anderson | $100 | $94.57 | +21.3% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stephens | Ben Bienvenu | $67 | $62.71 | -18.8% | Oct 12, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $60 | $60.46 | -27.2% | Apr 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on ADM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationArcher-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stands as a major global enterprise in the agricultural sector, focused on the sourcing, transportation, storage, processing, and distribution of a wide array of agricultural commodities, finished goods, and essential ingredients. Its expansive operations span numerous countries, including pivotal markets such as the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, alongside a broader international presence. ADM's business is strategically organized into three core divisions: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. The company's foundational activities involve acquiring, storing, cleaning, and distributing various agricultural raw materials, including oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. Beyond raw material handling, ADM is actively engaged in the global import, export, and distribution of agricultural commodities and feed products, complemented by specialized structured trade finance services.…
Historical context
All ADM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the ADM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T07:10:44.918578+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T07:10:44.915791+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.