Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold26 ratings
Bullish830.8%
Neutral1661.5%
Bearish27.7%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Watsco, Inc. · WSO · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Watsco’s Q3: pricing cushions sales decline, but unit demand remains soft
Pricing gains and technology-led selling tools helped protect profitability during a sales decline, but soft unit volumes and a weaker housing environment remain meaningful offsets. The next evidence to watch is whether margins and inventory efficiency improve as management works toward its stated targets.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$13.19B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.98
Consensus $4.44
EPS surprise
-10.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.07B
Consensus $2.17B
Revenue surprise
-4.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.2%
Up to 20 sessions
WSOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about WSO FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did WSO rise 2.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in WSO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for WSO after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The FY2025 Q3 analysis describes sales down 4% year over year, with double-digit pricing gains helping expand gross margin to 27.5%. It also flags a cautious Q4 revenue outlook, with management expecting a 5–10% decline, and says the A2L refrigerant transition is essentially complete. Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the tone shifted from cautious to confident, while softer unit volume and OEM pricing uncertainty remain concerns.
Guidance delta
The supplied analysis says formal guidance sentiment was not provided. It does note management expected Q4 revenue to decline 5–10%; no further guidance detail is available in the supplied facts.
Key takeaways
- Sales declined 4% year over year, while pricing gains supported earnings and gross margin expanded 130 basis points to 27.5%.
- Management’s Q4 revenue outlook in the analysis is a 5–10% decline; unit-volume softness was especially noted in August and September.
- The A2L refrigerant transition is described as essentially complete, reducing operational complexity.
- The analysis cites record Q3 cash flow of $355 million and approximately $600 million in cash on hand. Growth initiatives include e-commerce, OnCallAir and AI-driven pricing tools.
Management priorities
- Continue investment in technology, including AI-enabled pricing and operational tools and OnCallAir digital services.
- Improve inventory turns and work toward a gross-margin target above 30%.
- Pursue opportunistic distributor acquisitions and expand higher-margin non-equipment sales.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$316.71Current
$311Low
$395.77Average
$490High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 6, 2025 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2023 | |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 14, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 14, 2020 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 30, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2018 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2018 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Accumulate | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2016 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 25, 2016 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 6, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Outperform | Positive | Maintain | Jun 1, 2016 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 20, 2016 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Jul 19, 2013 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2012 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2012 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $316.71. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $330 | $279.9 | +4.2% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Chris Dankert | $330 | $302.41 | +4.2% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $400 | $310.57 | +26.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $420 | $364.37 | +32.6% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $384.39 | +27.9% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $384.81 | +21.6% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $485 | $438.47 | +53.1% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $422.83 | +34.2% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $370.6 | +16.8% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $354.22 | +16.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $347.33 | +16.8% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $349 | $340.84 | +10.2% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $369.33 | +26.3% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $398.88 | +45.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $505 | $456.55 | +59.5% | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $490 | $453.09 | +54.7% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $450 | $476.75 | +42.1% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $540 | $466.42 | +70.5% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| CFRA | Jonathan Sakraida | $415 | $481.39 | +31.0% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $522 | $491.62 | +64.8% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $460 | $440.6 | +45.2% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| CFRA | Jonathan Sakraida | $380 | $434.17 | +20.0% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $360 | $367.65 | +13.7% | Jul 25, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $265.39 | -11.6% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Joe Ahlersmeyer | $311 | $304.39 | -1.8% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $277 | $294.15 | -12.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
Track every rating change on WSO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationWatsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It distributes equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment. The company also offers parts comprising replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation materials, refrigerants, ductworks, grills, registers, sheet metals, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. It serves contractors and dealers that service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. Watsco, Inc. was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Historical context
All WSO earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYAAY Ryanair Holdings plc | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -0.3% | +2.9% | Ryanair flags fuel-cost pressure while maintaining growth plans |
| BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +6.8% | -0.2% | BWXT: Q3 growth and raised cash-flow outlook reinforce nuclear expansion |
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.0% | +0.5% | General Dynamics raises outlook as orders and backlog surge |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.9% | -6.8% | RBC Bearings: Strong Q2, capacity investment supports second half |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -0.3% | CN posts strong Q3, maintains EPS outlook and expands Mexico strategy |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.6% | -8.8% | nVent raises outlook as data-center demand and Maverick broaden growth |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- JAZZFY2026 Q3 · November 2, 2026+4.2% EPS-0.7% move
- ELFY2027 Q1 · November 2, 2026+42.0% EPS-4.1% move
- CHKPFY2026 Q3 · November 2, 2026+0.4% EPS-7.0% move
- FNFY2027 Q1 · November 2, 2026+3.3% EPS-3.8% move
- BMRNFY2026 Q3 · November 2, 2026+376.0% EPS-1.8% move
- LSCCFY2026 Q3 · November 2, 2026+30.0% EPS+2.7% move
Missed on EPS
- RYAAYFY2027 Q2 · November 2, 2026-0.3% EPS+2.9% move
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- PINSFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-5.4% EPS-2.8% move
Get the WSO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-03T04:00:47.415619+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-03T04:00:47.412592+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.