Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold39 ratings
Bullish1846.1%
Neutral1743.6%
Bearish410.3%
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. · LYB · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
LyondellBasell: Strong cash generation offsets weaker polymer margins
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: strong cash generation, oxyfuels demand, and portfolio diversification are supporting resilience, while polymer pricing, feedstock and freight costs, end-market weakness, and regulatory uncertainty remain material tests.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$21.12B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.57
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $8.87B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+4.6%
Event window
SPY move
-1.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+6.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
LYBSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about LYB FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove LYB's +4.6% move after FY2026 Q3 earnings?What changed in LYB's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for LYB after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter's analysis highlights record Intermediates & Derivatives EBITDA, supported by oxyfuels and the Bayport restart, alongside the planned Houston refinery sale. MoReTec-2 investment was delayed because of limited U.S. regulatory support, while management maintained its guidance sentiment.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a quantified guidance change.
Key takeaways
- Management's analysis points to $1.5 billion of EBITDA, an 18% margin, and $1.4 billion of free cash flow in Q3 2026.
- Oxyfuels and the Bayport restart supported record Intermediates & Derivatives earnings, helping offset weaker polyolefin margins.
- The planned $320.5 million sale of the former Houston refinery is intended to strengthen the balance sheet and add $50-$100 million of annual cash flow.
- Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, operational reliability, and continued circularity investment.
Management priorities
- Complete the Valero refinery transaction and use proceeds to strengthen the balance sheet.
- Maintain disciplined capital spending, safe operations, and selective growth investment.
- Target O&P operating rates of about 85% in Q4 while managing maintenance schedules.
- Advance MoReTec-1 and assess MoReTec-2 as regulatory support develops.
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$68.64Current
$43Low
$86.27Average
$146High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 3, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Fermium Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Sector Weight | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 1, 2025 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2024 |
| Atlantic Equities | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 31, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 10, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 2, 2021 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2021 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 13, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 6, 2020 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | May 4, 2020 |
| CFRA | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Standpoint Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Feb 10, 2017 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jun 13, 2016 |
| CLSA | Underperform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 11, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 12, 2015 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 27, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 9, 2013 |
| PiperJaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 29, 2012 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 4, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $68.64. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $68 | $59.76 | -0.9% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Aleksey Yefremov | $66 | $59.41 | -3.8% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $59.42 | -9.7% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $61.11 | +4.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $59.31 | -6.8% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $62.08 | -0.9% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $66 | $62.08 | -3.8% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $62.08 | +16.6% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $59.32 | +4.9% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.67 | -9.7% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $53.36 | -6.8% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Abigail Eberts | $70 | $53.36 | +2.0% | Jul 3, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Analyst unavailable | $83 | $52.58 | +20.9% | Jul 2, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $52.65 | -9.7% | Jul 1, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $65.65 | +6.4% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $67.67 | +42.8% | May 28, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $88 | $77.25 | +28.2% | May 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $77 | +19.5% | May 5, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $80 | $76.04 | +16.6% | May 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Vincent Andrews | $77 | $69.32 | +12.2% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $74.23 | +32.6% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Alembic Global | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $72.27 | +45.7% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $77.72 | +15.1% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $67.37 | +10.7% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $66.82 | +7.8% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $66.82 | +9.3% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $66.82 | +19.5% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $59.53 | +36.9% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Aleksey Yefremov | $73 | $58.21 | +6.4% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $56.74 | -44.6% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $53.33 | -25.7% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $49 | -22.8% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $48 | $49 | -30.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $50.47 | -28.6% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Vertical Research | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $46.2 | -30.1% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $43.6 | -44.6% | Dec 23, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $45 | $43.06 | -34.4% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $36 | $44.4 | -47.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $49 | $45.23 | -28.6% | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $46.35 | -27.2% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $46.27 | -40.3% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | John Roberts | $52 | $46.42 | -24.2% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $51 | $45.86 | -25.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $45.16 | -27.2% | Oct 14, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $43 | $48.94 | -37.4% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $49.33 | -21.3% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $49 | $64.28 | -28.6% | Jul 9, 2025 |
| Fermium Research | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $59.44 | +2.0% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Alembic Global | Hassan Ahmed | $67 | $58.76 | -2.4% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $51 | $56.44 | -25.7% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $85 | $57.98 | +23.8% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $80 | $72.48 | +16.6% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $98 | $85.12 | +42.8% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $112 | $85.3 | +63.2% | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Chris Parkinson | $91 | $92.44 | +32.6% | Aug 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | John McNulty | $105 | $101.7 | +53.0% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $113 | $101.7 | +64.6% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $119 | $101.34 | +73.4% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $100 | $105.86 | +45.7% | Apr 4, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $117 | $102.07 | +70.5% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Lauren Lieberman | $146 | $93.79 | +112.7% | Oct 4, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Charles Neivert | $118 | $95.46 | +71.9% | Apr 11, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $97.69 | +45.7% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $98.15 | +58.8% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $91.38 | +32.6% | Jan 11, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $92.06 | +41.3% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Mizuho Securities | Christopher Parkinson | $88 | $87.15 | +28.2% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Duffy Fischer | $80 | $77.23 | +16.6% | Oct 13, 2022 |
| UBS | Joshua Spector | $83 | $77.15 | +20.9% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $76.69 | +23.8% | Sep 16, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $80.07 | +34.0% | Sep 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $82.45 | +45.7% | Sep 13, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Kevin McCarthy | $96 | $86 | +39.9% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $86.1 | +64.6% | Aug 3, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $86.2 | +38.4% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $84.79 | +67.5% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $97 | $86.95 | +41.3% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $102 | $86.95 | +48.6% | Aug 2, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $84.08 | +35.5% | Jul 13, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $86.58 | +60.3% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | John Roberts | $70 | $87.66 | +2.0% | Jul 5, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Laurence Alexander | $117 | $87.86 | +70.5% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Arun Viswanathan | $99 | $87.46 | +44.2% | Jun 30, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $91.16 | +67.5% | Jun 17, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $110.58 | +92.3% | May 3, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $127 | $107.84 | +85.0% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $108.81 | +82.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Michael Leithead | $130 | $106.03 | +89.4% | May 2, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $110.66 | +82.1% | Apr 19, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $120 | $107.58 | +74.8% | Apr 16, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | David Begleiter | $104 | $95.63 | +51.5% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Sison | $115 | $95.63 | +67.5% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Atlantic Equities | Colin Isaac | $113 | $99.84 | +64.6% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| HSBC | Sriharsha Pappu | $112 | $88.89 | +63.2% | Dec 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Josh Silverstein | $132 | $108.19 | +92.3% | Jun 9, 2021 |
| Barclays | Duffy Fischer | $125 | $102.52 | +82.1% | Apr 19, 2021 |
Track every rating change on LYB the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationLyondellBasell Industries N.V., established in 2009 and based in Houston, Texas, operates as a prominent global chemical manufacturer with a significant international footprint, including the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, and the Netherlands. The company's diverse operations are organized into six distinct segments. Its core business involves the production and marketing of olefins and various polyolefins, such as high, low, and linear low-density polyethylene, along with polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers, for markets spanning the Americas…
Historical context
All LYB earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALE Vale S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -24.6% | +1.9% | Vale balances cost resilience with iron-ore and copper execution risks |
| TECK Teck Resources Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +26.4% | +1.1% | Teck posts strong Q3 as copper growth offsets merger and labor risks |
| CRH CRH plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.5% | +4.7% | CRH lowers EBITDA guidance as it leans on Arcosa and Velocity |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- WYFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+128.3% EPS+3.0% move
- LNTFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+16.0% EPS+1.4% move
- MTZFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+0.3% EPS+0.8% move
- ERIEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+2.1% EPS+5.3% move
- IRFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+18.5% EPS+0.2% move
- VLTOFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026+8.3% EPS+9.8% move
Missed on EPS
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- AMZNFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-4.1% EPS-1.6% move
- SYKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-0.8% EPS-5.0% move
- DLR-PJFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLRFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS-3.0% move
Get the LYB recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-10-30T20:09:17.703214+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-10-30T01:23:13.979536+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-30T20:10:43.633228+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-30T20:10:43.630638+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.