Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold26 ratings
Bullish830.8%
Neutral1661.5%
Bearish27.7%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Watsco, Inc. · WSO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Watsco’s Q4: margin progress amid a sharp unit-volume decline
Watsco’s quarter showed improving margin and cash-generation execution alongside significant volume weakness. The operating case depends on management converting pricing, technology and inventory initiatives into sustained margin gains as unit demand normalizes; the quarter alone does not resolve that balance.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$12.64B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.68
Consensus $1.88
EPS surprise
-10.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.58B
Consensus $1.62B
Revenue surprise
-2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.7%
Up to 20 sessions
WSOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about WSO FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did WSO rise 1.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in WSO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for WSO after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with Q3’s 4% sales decline and 130-basis-point gross-margin expansion, management reported Q4 unit volumes down 17%, gross margin up 40 basis points to 27.1%, and record cash flow of $400 million. The supplied scorecard shows EPS of $1.68 versus $1.88 estimated and revenue of $1.578 billion versus $1.617 billion estimated.
Guidance delta
The supplied analysis characterizes guidance sentiment as maintained. Management reiterated an objective of 30%+ gross margin and a target of five inventory turns; these are operating goals, not a newly raised forecast in the supplied analysis.
Key takeaways
- EPS and revenue were below consensus in the supplied scorecard.
- Gross margin reached 27.1%, up 40 basis points, while unit volumes fell 17%.
- Management cited record Q4 cash flow of $400 million and completion of a $500 million inventory reduction.
- E-commerce contributed 35% of sales; the contractor mobile app grew 15% to 73,000 users.
Management priorities
- Pursue 30%+ gross margin through pricing, AI and VCR initiatives.
- Move toward five inventory turns to support free cash flow.
- Continue acquisitions and investment in technology platforms, e-commerce and the nonequipment business.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$303.56Current
$311Low
$395.77Average
$490High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 6, 2025 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 10, 2023 | |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 24, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Peer Perform | Downgrade | Jul 12, 2021 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 14, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 14, 2020 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 12, 2018 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 30, 2018 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2018 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 25, 2018 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Accumulate | Downgrade | Jul 25, 2016 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 25, 2016 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 6, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Outperform | Positive | Maintain | Jun 1, 2016 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 20, 2016 |
| Global Hunter Securities | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Jul 19, 2013 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 9, 2012 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2012 |
| BB&T Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $303.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $330 | $279.9 | +8.7% | Oct 12, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Chris Dankert | $330 | $302.41 | +8.7% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $400 | $310.57 | +31.8% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $420 | $364.37 | +38.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $384.39 | +33.4% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $384.81 | +26.8% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $485 | $438.47 | +59.8% | Apr 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $422.83 | +40.0% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $370.6 | +21.9% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $354.22 | +21.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $347.33 | +21.9% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $349 | $340.84 | +15.0% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $400 | $369.33 | +31.8% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $460 | $398.88 | +51.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $505 | $456.55 | +66.4% | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $490 | $453.09 | +61.4% | Apr 24, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Chris Dankert | $450 | $476.75 | +48.2% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $540 | $466.42 | +77.9% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| CFRA | Jonathan Sakraida | $415 | $481.39 | +36.7% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $522 | $491.62 | +72.0% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $460 | $440.6 | +51.5% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| CFRA | Jonathan Sakraida | $380 | $434.17 | +25.2% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $360 | $367.65 | +18.6% | Jul 25, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $265.39 | -7.8% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Joe Ahlersmeyer | $311 | $304.39 | +2.5% | Aug 17, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $277 | $294.15 | -8.7% | Apr 22, 2022 |
Track every rating change on WSO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationWatsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It distributes equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment. The company also offers parts comprising replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation materials, refrigerants, ductworks, grills, registers, sheet metals, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. It serves contractors and dealers that service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. Watsco, Inc. was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Historical context
All WSO earningsIndustrials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +9.0% | +0.5% | General Dynamics raises outlook as orders and backlog surge |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.9% | -6.8% | RBC Bearings: Strong Q2, capacity investment supports second half |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -0.3% | CN posts strong Q3, maintains EPS outlook and expands Mexico strategy |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +8.6% | -8.8% | nVent raises outlook as data-center demand and Maverick broaden growth |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +0.3% | +0.8% | MasTec posts record Q3 as power and data-center demand accelerates |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +18.5% | +0.2% | Ingersoll Rand raises FY2026 outlook as orders accelerate |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CHDFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+2.2% EPS+1.2% move
- AZNFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+7.3% EPS+7.0% move
- FRTFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+3.9% EPS-1.1% move
- CVXFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+8.4% EPS+1.8% move
- BTSGFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+14.2% EPS+11.1% move
- EXCFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026+10.4% EPS+0.5% move
Missed on EPS
- GLPIFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-11.5% EPS-1.3% move
- LYBFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-1.2% EPS+5.0% move
- CCJFY2026 Q3 · October 30, 2026-101.4% EPS-7.9% move
- VALEFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-24.6% EPS+1.9% move
- DLR-PLFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
- DLR-PKFY2026 Q3 · October 29, 2026-8.4% EPS— move
Get the WSO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-01T21:40:46.223208+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-01T21:40:46.220424+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.