Vodafone Group Public Limited Company · VOD · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2025

Vodafone holds FY guidance as growth contrasts with German weakness

Vodafone's reported service-revenue and EBITDAaL growth, alongside maintained guidance, supports a constructive near-term operating picture. But Germany's transition and pricing headwinds, plus UK integration execution, leave the durability and mix of growth important tests. The evidence is mixed, not a clean confirmation of sustained growth.

What drove VOD's -9.1% move after FY2025 Q3 earnings?

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Reported Before market openNASDAQCommunication Services $36.35B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
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EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
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Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -9.1% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -8.8% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +3.5% Up to 20 sessions
VODSPY benchmark

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What drove VOD's -9.1% move after FY2025 Q3 earnings?What changed in VOD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for VOD after FY2025 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current-quarter analysis highlights completion of the Italy sale, with proceeds earmarked for debt reduction and a future buyback, and an advanced but still pending UK-Three merger. Management described Germany as a continuing source of pressure, while Turkey and other emerging markets were growth contributors.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year guidance. The supplied transcript analysis identifies no numerical change to that guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Service revenue grew 5.2% year over year and EBITDAaL rose 2.2%, with full-year guidance maintained.
  • Germany remained pressured by the MDU transition, mobile pricing competition and one-off items.
  • Turkey contributed a large share of the service-revenue increase, according to the supplied analysis.
  • The UK-Three merger remained subject to CMA approval; integration and synergies are future execution items.

Management priorities

  • Advance the UK-Three merger and pursue integration synergies and network investment.
  • Continue the German turnaround through customer experience, brand, B2B and network investment.
  • Build on Turkey's market position and expand data-center services.
  • Use portfolio actions to reduce debt and fund the next buyback phase.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
VOD EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 3 reported fiscal quarters and 1 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '24 actual $0.06, None Q4 '26 estimate $0.32 Q4 '26 actual $-0.62, miss Q2 '27 estimate $0.61 Q2 '27 actual $0.17, miss Q4 '27 estimate $0.40

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish1248.0%
Neutral728.0%
Bearish624.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$15.59Current
$9.5Low
$14Average
$20.93High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Barclays Underweight Equal WeightDowngradeOct 20, 2026
UBS Sell NeutralDowngradeNov 3, 2025
JP Morgan Underweight NeutralDowngradeApr 23, 2025
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainOct 12, 2023
B of A Securities Buy NeutralUpgradeJan 12, 2023
Show 20 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $15.58. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Goldman SachsAndrew Lee$20.93$16.58 +34.3%Sep 4, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$11.58$15.57 -25.7%Feb 16, 2026
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$10.09$10.74 -35.3%Jul 31, 2025
CFRAAdrian Ng$9.5$8.61 -39.0%Mar 18, 2024

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Vodafone Group Public Limited Company, established in 1984 and based in Newbury, UK, is a global telecommunications leader delivering services across Europe and internationally. The company provides fundamental mobile services, enabling customers to make calls, send texts, and access data. Its fixed-line offerings encompass broadband internet, television packages, and voice telephony. Vodafone also integrates these services into converged solutions under brand names like GigaKombi and Vodafone One. Beyond core telecom functions, it innovates with value-added services such as a comprehensive Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio, including logistics, fleet management, smart metering, insurance, cloud computing, and security, alongside automotive and health solutions. Furthermore, Vodafone operates M-Pesa, a prominent African payment platform that facilitates money transfers, financial services, and business and merchant payments. The company expands its reach by offering services to other operators through partner market agreements and holds a strategic partnership with Open Fiber.

Historical context

All VOD earnings
-1.2%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026-7.5%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026+7.8%FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025

Communication Services peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -8.9% -2.3% AST SpaceMobile: Q3 execution milestones, with launch and scale risks
TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +783.5% +15.5% Flat Q3 revenue meets outlook as Trade Desk points to product gains and Q4 growth
TU TELUS Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -8.0% -3.3% TELUS Holds Guidance as Savings and Deleveraging Lead Q3 Strategy
CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -330.3% -6.2% Charter pivots toward internet growth as Cox integration reshapes priorities

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:39:04.055137+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-11T00:20:50.494375+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-11T00:20:50.491600+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.