Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold8 ratings
Bullish450.0%
Neutral337.5%
Bearish112.5%
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · ASTS · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
AST SpaceMobile: Q3 execution milestones, with launch and scale risks
The long-term growth case gained support from new government funding and contract activity, broader service plans, and continued satellite production scale-up. It remains contingent on converting those milestones into commercial revenue while managing capital needs, launch access, and execution risk; the quarter’s below-consensus results underscore that progress is not yet the same as demonstrated revenue scale.
Why did ASTS fall 2.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services
$15.06B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.44
Consensus $-0.40
EPS surprise
-8.9%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$42.3M
Consensus $45.7M
Revenue surprise
-7.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
ASTSSPY benchmark
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Why did ASTS fall 2.3% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in ASTS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ASTS after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management described plans for intermittent service in five markets before year-end 2026, a production ramp, new government awards and Japan subsidy support, and a Blacklift reusable-launch program targeted for 2028. FY2026 revenue guidance was reaffirmed. Reported Q3 EPS and revenue were below consensus estimates.
Guidance delta
Management maintained FY2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million; the supplied analysis notes potential upside but no revised range.
Key takeaways
- Management said intermittent service activation is expected before year-end 2026 in five strategic markets.
- The company plans to ramp ASIC satellite production and is targeting more than 100 BlueBird satellites by 2028.
- New government contract and Japan subsidy announcements add funding and demand opportunities, but do not by themselves establish recurring commercial revenue.
- Q3 EPS and revenue were below consensus, while FY2026 revenue guidance was maintained.
Management priorities
- Prepare intermittent service in the United States, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom.
- Scale BlueBird ASIC satellite production and expand the constellation.
- Advance sovereign-market and government programs, including J-LEO and U.S. government work.
- Develop Blacklift and additional satellite applications, including AI inference, radar sensing, and secure communications.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$36.38Current
$12.9Low
$67.34Average
$108High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 10, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Clear Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 12, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $36.38. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Christopher Schoell | $43 | $36.89 | +18.2% | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $55.7 | $38.96 | +53.1% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $54 | $51.46 | +48.4% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| B.Riley Financial | Mike Crawford | $65 | $57.04 | +78.6% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $55.8 | +152.9% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $74.2 | +155.6% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $68.49 | +114.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $68.76 | +169.3% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Colin Canfield | $90 | $68.76 | +147.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $66.31 | +174.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $110.32 | +191.3% | May 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $109.78 | +191.3% | May 29, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $74.81 | +119.9% | May 13, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $71.61 | +196.8% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $71.59 | +119.9% | May 12, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $85.53 | +216.1% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $87.58 | +221.6% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $115.77 | +276.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $115.77 | +276.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $45.6 | $51.37 | +25.3% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $42.9 | $71.47 | +17.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.08 | +64.9% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $47.9 | $33.8 | +31.6% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bryan Kraft | $63 | $30.75 | +73.1% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Coello | $45.9 | $31.07 | +26.2% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Coello | $28 | $29.57 | -23.0% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Mike Crawford | $26 | $26.16 | -28.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| UBS | Christopher Schoell | $30 | $20.81 | -17.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| UBS | Chris Schoell | $13 | $8.52 | -64.3% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Graham | $12.9 | $8.6 | -64.5% | May 30, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Graham | $7.4 | $2.63 | -79.7% | Apr 2, 2024 |
Track every rating change on ASTS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAST SpaceMobile, Inc. establishes and operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard mobile phones. Through its SpaceMobile service, it delivers mobile internet access to individuals in remote or unserved locations that lack traditional terrestrial mobile coverage, whether on land, across oceans, or during air travel. The company is situated in Midland, Texas.
Historical context
All ASTS earningsCommunication Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOD Vodafone Group Public Limited Company | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -72.8% | -1.2% | Vodafone raises FY27 outlook as digital services and cost savings advance |
| TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +783.5% | +15.5% | Flat Q3 revenue meets outlook as Trade Desk points to product gains and Q4 growth |
| TU TELUS Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -8.0% | -3.3% | TELUS Holds Guidance as Savings and Deleveraging Lead Q3 Strategy |
| CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -330.3% | -6.2% | Charter pivots toward internet growth as Cox integration reshapes priorities |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- VGFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+92.7% EPS+1.7% move
- TDGFY2026 Q4 · November 10, 2026+1.9% EPS+0.5% move
- ONONFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+39.9% EPS-7.5% move
- CRWVFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 20260.0% EPS-0.5% move
- OXYFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+30.8% EPS+2.0% move
- MGREFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+8.1% EPS+0.6% move
Missed on EPS
- EMBJFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-49.4% EPS+7.0% move
- VODFY2027 Q2 · November 10, 2026-72.8% EPS-1.2% move
- SEFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-5.1% EPS-1.5% move
- BAPFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-2.6% EPS+3.3% move
- JBSFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-28.6% EPS-5.5% move
- CIBFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-10.1% EPS-4.0% move
Get the ASTS recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-10T15:10:32.248759+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-10T01:23:14.443147+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-10T15:20:52.832237+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-10T15:20:52.829592+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.