Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold8 ratings
Bullish450.0%
Neutral337.5%
Bearish112.5%
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. · ASTS · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
AST SpaceMobile maintains guidance as backlog and manufacturing scale up
The supplied analysis supports a constructive long-term growth narrative: backlog, mobile-network-operator partnerships, manufacturing expansion, and government opportunities improve visibility. That thesis remains execution-dependent because commercial revenue, launch cadence, regulatory approvals, and capital spending must develop as planned.
Why did ASTS rise 4.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?
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Reported After market closeNASDAQCommunication Services
$23.81B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.77
Consensus $-0.32
EPS surprise
-144.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$31.5M
Consensus $34.5M
Revenue surprise
-8.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+4.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
0.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-12.9%
Up to 20 sessions
ASTSSPY benchmark
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Why did ASTS rise 4.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in ASTS's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for ASTS after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis highlights Q2 revenue of $31.5 million, backlog growth to $1.3 billion, a larger manufacturing expansion, and a later-2026 beta-service target. Full-year revenue guidance remained maintained, while the key concerns shifted toward scaling execution, launch reliability, and timing of government revenue.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150–200 million; the analysis says revenue is expected to be front-loaded in Q4.
Key takeaways
- Q2 revenue more than doubled from Q1, while backlog reached $1.3 billion.
- Management is expanding manufacturing capacity and targeting six BlueBird satellites per month.
- Beta service is targeted for later 2026, but launch, regulatory, and execution risks remain.
Management priorities
- Scale BlueBird satellite manufacturing and expand the Midland facility.
- Advance beta direct-to-device service and commercial launch preparations.
- Expand mobile-network-operator, government, sovereign-constellation, and spectrum partnerships.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$32.03Current
$12.9Low
$66.53Average
$108High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 12, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Clear Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 12, 2025 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $32.03. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $55.7 | $38.96 | +73.9% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Alexander Potter | $54 | $51.46 | +68.6% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| B.Riley Financial | Mike Crawford | $65 | $57.04 | +102.9% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $55.8 | +187.2% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $74.2 | +190.4% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $68.49 | +143.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $68.76 | +206.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Colin Canfield | $90 | $68.76 | +181.0% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $66.31 | +212.2% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $110.32 | +230.9% | May 29, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $109.78 | +230.9% | May 29, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $74.81 | +149.8% | May 13, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $108 | $71.61 | +237.2% | May 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $80 | $71.59 | +149.8% | May 12, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $85.53 | +259.0% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $87.58 | +265.3% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $115.77 | +327.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $137 | $115.77 | +327.7% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $45.6 | $51.37 | +42.4% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $42.9 | $71.47 | +33.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.08 | +87.3% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $47.9 | $33.8 | +49.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Bryan Kraft | $63 | $30.75 | +96.7% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Coello | $45.9 | $31.07 | +43.3% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Coello | $28 | $29.57 | -12.6% | Aug 16, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Mike Crawford | $26 | $26.16 | -18.8% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| UBS | Christopher Schoell | $30 | $20.81 | -6.3% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| UBS | Chris Schoell | $13 | $8.52 | -59.4% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Graham | $12.9 | $8.6 | -59.7% | May 30, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Andres Graham | $7.4 | $2.63 | -76.9% | Apr 2, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationAST SpaceMobile, Inc. establishes and operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard mobile phones. Through its SpaceMobile service, it delivers mobile internet access to individuals in remote or unserved locations that lack traditional terrestrial mobile coverage, whether on land, across oceans, or during air travel. The company is situated in Midland, Texas.
Historical context
All ASTS earningsCommunication Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIGO Millicom International Cellular S.A. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -40.8% | +2.6% | Millicom sets Q3 EBITDA record, maintains full-year guidance |
| FWONK Liberty Media Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -3.7% | +7.7% | F1 attendance and hospitality lead, while expansion carries execution risks |
| FWONA Formula One Group | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -23.5% | +9.5% | Formula One’s Q3: Hospitality and licensing offset calendar variability |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +11.9% | -1.1% | Live Nation raises outlook as record attendance and Ticketmaster gains drive Q3 |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- MTDFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+3.6% EPS+4.8% move
- IAGFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+16.7% EPS+4.6% move
- GMABFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+55.6% EPS-4.3% move
- STEFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026+9.7% EPS+2.5% move
- IRMFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026+4.6% EPS-11.1% move
- AFRMFY2027 Q1 · November 5, 2026+23.8% EPS+1.9% move
Missed on EPS
- VMRKFY2026 Q3 · November 4, 2026-425.6% EPS+2.4% move
- NTRAFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-49.3% EPS-15.2% move
- TIGOFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-40.8% EPS+2.6% move
- UHALFY2027 Q2 · November 4, 2026-15.4% EPS-3.2% move
- LAMRFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-3.6% EPS-0.8% move
- CMIFY2026 Q3 · November 5, 2026-6.0% EPS-4.9% move
Get the ASTS recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-11T14:12:05.098465+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-15T01:23:15.305287+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T20:50:49.140364+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T20:50:49.137550+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-21. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.