Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold49 ratings
Bullish2551.0%
Neutral2244.9%
Bearish24.1%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation · OXY · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026
Occidental Beats Production Guidance and Reaches Debt Milestone
Occidental’s Q3 update reinforces a case built on production execution, efficiency initiatives and balance-sheet progress: production exceeded guidance and the company reached its $10 billion principal-debt milestone. The next test is execution—whether recovery projects and cost improvements support its cash-flow ambitions while it pursues a lower debt target and maintains production.
Why did OXY rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?
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Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$55.74B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.91
Consensus $1.46
EPS surprise
+30.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.77B
Consensus $6.80B
Revenue surprise
-0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
0.0%
Up to 20 sessions
OXYSPY benchmark
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Why did OXY rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in OXY's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for OXY after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management reported Q3 production above guidance and completion of the $10 billion principal-debt milestone, then set a new $6 billion target. The call also highlighted 2 million metric tons per year of anthropogenic CO2 off-take agreements, AI monitoring across 68% of artificial-lift wells, and 50% operating autonomously. Compared with Q2, the emphasis shifts from reaching the $10 billion debt milestone as a goal to reporting it as achieved; guidance sentiment moved from raised in Q2 to maintained in Q3.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance. The supplied analysis says the 2027 capital plan is approximately $5.9 billion and targets flat production, efficiency-led growth and continued cash-flow improvement; Q4 outlook indicates flat to slightly higher production, with capital spending stable within guidance.
Key takeaways
- Production topped guidance at 1.43 million BOE per day, with record output in the Delaware and Powder River basins, according to the supplied call analysis.
- Occidental completed its $10 billion principal-debt milestone and established a new $6 billion target.
- Management identified CO2 enhanced oil recovery, waterfloods and AI-enabled artificial lift as efficiency and recovery initiatives; the analysis reports AI surveillance on 68% of artificial-lift wells, with 50% operating autonomously.
- The supplied scorecard shows EPS of $1.91 versus $1.46 estimated, while revenue was $6.772 billion versus $6.803 billion estimated.
- The stated 2027 plan emphasizes approximately $5.9 billion of capital spending, flat production and efficiency-led growth.
Management priorities
- Reach the new $6 billion principal-debt target and evaluate opportunistic share repurchases.
- Execute the 2027 capital plan with a focus on efficiency and flat production.
- Expand CO2-EOR and waterflood projects and use AI-driven artificial lift and predictive maintenance.
- Advance low-cost CO2 off-take and commission the STRATOS plant, subject to the stated project timeline.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$57.16Current
$24Low
$63.07Average
$86High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 19, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Oct 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2023 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 9, 2022 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 6, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 4, 2022 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 19, 2020 |
| Jefferies | Underperform | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 16, 2020 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 16, 2019 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 25, 2019 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2019 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Mar 27, 2019 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 23, 2018 |
| Mizuho Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2016 |
| GMP Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 3, 2016 |
| IBERIA Capital Partners | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 17, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2014 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2014 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2014 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 12, 2013 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 3, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 11, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $57.16. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $64.07 | +33.0% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Lloyd Byrne | $60 | $62.38 | +5.0% | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $70 | $62.26 | +22.5% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Gabe Daoud | $64 | $60.67 | +12.0% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $71 | $61.24 | +24.2% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Mark Lear | $63 | $61.41 | +10.2% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $68 | $61.93 | +19.0% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $61.8 | +27.7% | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $69 | $55.32 | +20.7% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $61.46 | +43.5% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Josh Silverstein | $67 | $61.46 | +17.2% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Richardson | $70 | $61.24 | +22.5% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $60.91 | +27.7% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $71 | $58.36 | +24.2% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Gabe Daoud | $63 | $57.98 | +10.2% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $56.06 | +20.7% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $56.04 | +38.2% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $53.81 | +31.2% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $51.68 | +13.7% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $49.99 | +19.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $57.46 | +31.2% | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $72 | $58.81 | +26.0% | May 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $58.87 | +12.0% | May 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $54.02 | -0.3% | May 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $53.69 | +13.7% | May 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.24 | +31.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $72 | $58.53 | +26.0% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $69 | $55.58 | +20.7% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Mark Lear | $66 | $55.58 | +15.5% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $52.98 | +5.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $51.23 | -3.8% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $60 | $51.76 | +5.0% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $51.78 | -14.3% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $53 | $52.12 | -7.3% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $51.53 | -21.3% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $47.11 | +17.2% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $51 | $43.93 | -10.8% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $42.8 | -19.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $41.02 | -24.8% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $50 | $41.43 | -12.5% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $51 | $41.44 | -10.8% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Mark Lear | $46 | $42.52 | -19.5% | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $64 | $41.8 | +12.0% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $47 | $40.94 | -17.8% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $40.9 | -3.8% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $47 | $44.7 | -17.8% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $44.23 | -33.5% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $44.23 | -21.3% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $44.23 | +5.0% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.23 | -3.8% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $47.72 | -19.5% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $48 | $47.47 | -16.0% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $58 | $45.47 | +1.5% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $45.67 | -19.5% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $45 | $46.31 | -21.3% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.97 | -16.0% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $58 | $50.04 | +1.5% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $54 | $50.34 | -5.5% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $51 | $48.05 | -10.8% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $77 | $51.72 | +34.7% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $57 | $51.26 | -0.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $72 | $51.56 | +26.0% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $65 | $53.9 | +13.7% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $58 | $53.25 | +1.5% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $67 | $57.61 | +17.2% | Aug 18, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $76 | $61.21 | +33.0% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $67 | $61.21 | +17.2% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $80 | $61.48 | +40.0% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $69 | $63.38 | +20.7% | May 16, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $70 | $68.94 | +22.5% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $90 | $68.94 | +57.5% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $70 | $68.94 | +22.5% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $68.55 | +27.7% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| HSBC | Samantha Hoh | $65 | $69.25 | +13.7% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $72 | $64.5 | +26.0% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $69 | $63.81 | +20.7% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Roth MKM Ratings | $60 | $64.07 | +5.0% | Aug 21, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $80 | $62.55 | +40.0% | Aug 16, 2023 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $69 | $60.22 | +20.7% | Jul 18, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.73 | +17.2% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $62.53 | +20.7% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $67.26 | +33.0% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $60.99 | +3.2% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeanine Wai | $79 | $62.95 | +38.2% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $60.99 | +83.7% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $60.86 | +47.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $70 | $59.52 | +22.5% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $55.68 | +29.5% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $70.29 | +27.7% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $73.35 | +55.7% | May 31, 2022 |
| Capital One Financial | Richard Tullis | $85 | $63.26 | +48.7% | May 23, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $60.1 | +1.5% | May 12, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Scialla | $86 | $60.1 | +50.5% | May 12, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $71 | $57.03 | +24.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $86 | $54.82 | +50.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $56.62 | +57.5% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $57 | +22.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $58.31 | +29.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $88 | $57.92 | +54.0% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Scialia | $84 | $61.8 | +47.0% | Apr 10, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Giacomo Romeo | $63 | $56.1 | +10.2% | Apr 6, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vincent Lovaglio | $85 | $58.11 | +48.7% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $85 | $57.48 | +48.7% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $52 | $56.64 | -9.0% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $52 | $55.59 | -9.0% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $51 | $57.95 | -10.8% | Mar 11, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Phil Gresh | $66 | $57.95 | +15.5% | Mar 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $80 | $58.13 | +40.0% | Mar 10, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $57 | $54.47 | -0.3% | Mar 8, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $52 | $46.68 | -9.0% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | John Gerdes | $50 | $46.68 | -12.5% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $50 | $36.77 | -12.5% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Scott Gruber | $40 | $36.68 | -30.0% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Societe Generale | Raphael Dubois | $43 | $33.3 | -24.8% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Josh Silverstein | $42 | $28.67 | -26.5% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | William Janela | $28 | $33.33 | -51.0% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | David Deckelbaum | $35 | $32.19 | -38.8% | Oct 13, 2021 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $24 | $31.17 | -58.0% | Jun 30, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $31 | $25.98 | -45.8% | May 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on OXY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationOccidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Historical context
All OXY earningsEnergy peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- VGFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+92.7% EPS+1.7% move
- TDGFY2026 Q4 · November 10, 2026+1.9% EPS+0.5% move
- ONONFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026+39.9% EPS-7.5% move
- CRWVFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 20260.0% EPS-0.5% move
- MGREFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+8.1% EPS+0.6% move
- MGRDFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026+8.1% EPS+1.4% move
Missed on EPS
- EMBJFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-49.4% EPS+7.0% move
- VODFY2027 Q2 · November 10, 2026-72.8% EPS-1.2% move
- SEFY2026 Q3 · November 10, 2026-5.1% EPS-1.5% move
- BAPFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-2.6% EPS+3.3% move
- JBSFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-28.6% EPS-5.5% move
- CIBFY2026 Q3 · November 9, 2026-10.1% EPS-4.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-10T23:08:49.748350+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-10T01:23:14.443147+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-10T23:10:51.636568+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-10T23:10:51.633885+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.