Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold49 ratings
Bullish2449.0%
Neutral2244.9%
Bearish36.1%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation · OXY · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
OXY Beats Production, Raises Midstream Outlook as Deleveraging Accelerates
Occidental's Q1 2026 reflects strong operational execution: production beat guidance at 1.43 MM BOE/d, free cash flow reached $1.7B, and principal debt fell to $13.3B. Adjusted EPS of $1.06 topped consensus by 76%, though revenue of $5.23B missed by approximately 4% on Middle East disruptions and PSC pricing impacts. Management raised full-year midstream earnings guidance by $800M to $1.1B while maintaining the $5.5-$5.9B capital budget. The stock fell 7.1% in the event window despite the beat before recovering 6.4% subsequently. STRATOS Phase 2 construction is complete but a Phase 1 repair issue introduces near-term uncertainty. With Richard Jackson succeeding Vicki Hollub and a clear path toward $10B in principal debt, the thesis centers on sustained cost efficiency, deleveraging, and durable free cash flow across price cycles.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$53.64B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationOccidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.06
Consensus $1
EPS surprise
+76.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.23B
Consensus $5.44B
Revenue surprise
-3.9%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$56.03Current
$24Low
$60.57Average
$86High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 26, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 9, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 20, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Mar 11, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Feb 20, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 11, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 8, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2023 |
| Roth MKM | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 9, 2022 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 6, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Societe Generale | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 4, 2022 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 19, 2020 |
| Jefferies | Underperform | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 16, 2020 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 16, 2019 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Apr 25, 2019 |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2019 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Perform | Maintain | Mar 27, 2019 |
| Edward Jones | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 17, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 23, 2018 |
| Mizuho Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 6, 2016 |
| GMP Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 3, 2016 |
| iBERIA Capital Partners | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 17, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 15, 2014 |
| Simmons & Co. | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2014 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 23, 2014 |
| Scotia Howard Weil | Sector Perform | Sector Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2014 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 12, 2013 |
| Standpoint Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 3, 2013 |
| Dahlman Rose | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 11, 2012 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $56.03. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $51.68 | +16.0% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $68 | $49.99 | +21.4% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $57.46 | +33.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $72 | $58.81 | +28.5% | May 26, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $58.87 | +14.2% | May 20, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $54.02 | +1.7% | May 8, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $53.69 | +16.0% | May 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.24 | +33.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Margolin | $72 | $58.53 | +28.5% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $69 | $55.58 | +23.1% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Mark Lear | $66 | $55.58 | +17.8% | Mar 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $52.98 | +7.1% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $51.23 | -1.8% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $60 | $51.76 | +7.1% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $51.78 | -12.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $53 | $52.12 | -5.4% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $51.53 | -19.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $47.11 | +19.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $51 | $43.93 | -9.0% | Jan 26, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $42.8 | -17.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $41.02 | -23.3% | Dec 12, 2025 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $50 | $41.43 | -10.8% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $51 | $41.44 | -9.0% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Mark Lear | $46 | $42.52 | -17.9% | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $64 | $41.8 | +14.2% | Nov 11, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $47 | $40.94 | -16.1% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $40.9 | -1.8% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $47 | $44.7 | -16.1% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $44.23 | -32.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $45 | $44.23 | -19.7% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $44.23 | +7.1% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $44.23 | -1.8% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $47.72 | -17.9% | Oct 2, 2025 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $48 | $47.47 | -14.3% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $58 | $45.47 | +3.5% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $46 | $45.67 | -17.9% | Sep 15, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $45 | $46.31 | -19.7% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $39.97 | -14.3% | Apr 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $58 | $50.04 | +3.5% | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Leo Mariani | $54 | $50.34 | -3.6% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $51 | $48.05 | -9.0% | Dec 19, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $77 | $51.72 | +37.4% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $57 | $51.26 | +1.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $72 | $51.56 | +28.5% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $65 | $53.9 | +16.0% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $58 | $53.25 | +3.5% | Oct 2, 2024 |
| Barclays | Betty Jiang | $67 | $57.61 | +19.6% | Aug 18, 2024 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $76 | $61.21 | +35.6% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $67 | $61.21 | +19.6% | Jul 22, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $80 | $61.48 | +42.8% | Jul 12, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $69 | $63.38 | +23.1% | May 16, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $70 | $68.94 | +24.9% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $90 | $68.94 | +60.6% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $70 | $68.94 | +24.9% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $68.55 | +30.3% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| HSBC | Samantha Hoh | $65 | $69.25 | +16.0% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $72 | $64.5 | +28.5% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Nitin Kumar | $69 | $63.81 | +23.1% | Mar 22, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Roth MKM Ratings | $60 | $64.07 | +7.1% | Aug 21, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $80 | $62.55 | +42.8% | Aug 16, 2023 |
| Stephens | Mike Scialla | $69 | $60.22 | +23.1% | Jul 18, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $63.73 | +19.6% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $69 | $62.53 | +23.1% | Dec 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $67.26 | +35.6% | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $60.99 | +5.3% | Aug 4, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jeanine Wai | $79 | $62.95 | +41.0% | Jul 28, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $60.99 | +87.4% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $60.86 | +49.9% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $70 | $59.52 | +24.9% | Jul 11, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $55.68 | +32.1% | Jun 21, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $73 | $70.29 | +30.3% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $73.35 | +58.8% | May 31, 2022 |
| Capital One Financial | Richard Tullis | $85 | $63.26 | +51.7% | May 23, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $60.1 | +3.5% | May 12, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Scialla | $86 | $60.1 | +53.5% | May 12, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $71 | $57.03 | +26.7% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $86 | $54.82 | +53.5% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $56.62 | +60.6% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $57 | +24.9% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $74 | $58.31 | +32.1% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Ryan Todd | $88 | $57.92 | +57.1% | Apr 11, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Scialia | $84 | $61.8 | +49.9% | Apr 10, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Giacomo Romeo | $63 | $56.1 | +12.4% | Apr 6, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Vincent Lovaglio | $85 | $58.11 | +51.7% | Apr 3, 2022 |
| Raymond James | John Freeman | $85 | $57.48 | +51.7% | Mar 30, 2022 |
| BMO Capital | Phillip Jungwirth | $52 | $56.64 | -7.2% | Mar 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $52 | $55.59 | -7.2% | Mar 14, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Roger Read | $51 | $57.95 | -9.0% | Mar 11, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Phil Gresh | $66 | $57.95 | +17.8% | Mar 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Doug Leggate | $80 | $58.13 | +42.8% | Mar 10, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Paul Cheng | $57 | $54.47 | +1.7% | Mar 8, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Biju Perincheril | $52 | $46.68 | -7.2% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | John Gerdes | $50 | $46.68 | -10.8% | Mar 1, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Devin McDermott | $50 | $36.77 | -10.8% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Scott Gruber | $40 | $36.68 | -28.6% | Jan 25, 2022 |
| Societe Generale | Raphael Dubois | $43 | $33.3 | -23.3% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Josh Silverstein | $42 | $28.67 | -25.0% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | William Janela | $28 | $33.33 | -50.0% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | David Deckelbaum | $35 | $32.19 | -37.5% | Oct 13, 2021 |
| UBS | Lloyd Byrne | $24 | $31.17 | -57.2% | Jun 30, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neil Mehta | $31 | $25.98 | -44.7% | May 27, 2021 |
Track every rating change on OXY the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-7.1%
Event window
SPY move
+1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.6×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.4%
Up to 20 sessions
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Versus the prior quarter, Occidental reduced principal debt from approximately $14.3 billion to $13.3 billion, bringing the go-forward annual interest run rate to $845 million. The midstream segment outperformed by approximately $400 million above guidance midpoint, prompting an $800 million increase to full-year midstream earnings guidance. New developments include the Bandit discovery in the Gulf of America (the third such find in three years), completion of STRATOS Phase 2 construction, and the implementation of modest oil hedges using costless collars with a $55 floor and $76 ceiling. A leadership transition from Vicki Hollub to Richard Jackson was announced. An issue with non-process components at STRATOS Phase 1 was identified during commissioning, with a repair timeline under evaluation but no expected impact to the annual capital range.
Guidance delta
Capital budget maintained at $5.5-$5.9 billion with a stable outlook, unchanged from the prior quarter. Full-year midstream earnings guidance raised by $800 million to $1.1 billion, driven by gas marketing optimization and higher sulfur prices. Overall guidance sentiment was maintained. Management targets more than $1.2 billion of incremental free cash flow in 2026 versus 2025, with plans for significant additional cash flow by 2029 through cost efficiency, lower decline rates, midstream improvements, and reduced interest expense.
Key takeaways
- Production of 1.43 MM BOE/d beat the high end of guidance by 21,000 BOE/d, driven by strong new well performance in the Permian and Rockies and 98% topside uptime in the Gulf of America
- Adjusted EPS of $1.06 exceeded consensus of $0.601 by 76%; revenue of $5.23 billion missed estimates by approximately 4%
- Free cash flow of $1.7 billion before working capital; 52% higher year-over-year from continuing operations despite similar oil prices
- Principal debt reduced to $13.3 billion with a near-term target of $10 billion; annual interest run rate down to $845 million
- Midstream segment outperformed by approximately $400 million, prompting an $800 million increase to $1.1 billion full-year earnings guidance
- STRATOS Phase 2 construction complete (250k tons/yr capacity); Phase 1 commissioning issue identified with repair timeline pending
Management priorities
- Execute the 2026 development program with emphasis on EOR waterfloods and Gulf of America projects
- Reduce principal debt to $10 billion as the near-term cash flow priority
- Deliver $500 million in additional cost savings in 2026, building on $2 billion achieved since 2023
- Resolve STRATOS Phase 1 repair and provide an operational update next quarter
- Pursue measured reinvestment after reaching the $10 billion debt target, focusing on high-return projects
- Leverage AI and advanced analytics to improve well design and operational efficiency
Related earnings events
EnergySources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T20:34:53.954404+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T20:34:53.951520+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.