Occidental Petroleum Corporation · OXY · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026

Occidental Beats Production Guidance and Reaches Debt Milestone

Occidental’s Q3 update reinforces a case built on production execution, efficiency initiatives and balance-sheet progress: production exceeded guidance and the company reached its $10 billion principal-debt milestone. The next test is execution—whether recovery projects and cost improvements support its cash-flow ambitions while it pursues a lower debt target and maintains production.

Why did OXY rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?

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Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy $55.74B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.91 Consensus $1.46
EPS surprise +30.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $6.77B Consensus $6.80B
Revenue surprise -0.5% Reported versus consensus
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Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +2.0% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move +2.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift 0.0% Up to 20 sessions
OXYSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management reported Q3 production above guidance and completion of the $10 billion principal-debt milestone, then set a new $6 billion target. The call also highlighted 2 million metric tons per year of anthropogenic CO2 off-take agreements, AI monitoring across 68% of artificial-lift wells, and 50% operating autonomously. Compared with Q2, the emphasis shifts from reaching the $10 billion debt milestone as a goal to reporting it as achieved; guidance sentiment moved from raised in Q2 to maintained in Q3.

Guidance delta

Management maintained guidance. The supplied analysis says the 2027 capital plan is approximately $5.9 billion and targets flat production, efficiency-led growth and continued cash-flow improvement; Q4 outlook indicates flat to slightly higher production, with capital spending stable within guidance.

Key takeaways

  • Production topped guidance at 1.43 million BOE per day, with record output in the Delaware and Powder River basins, according to the supplied call analysis.
  • Occidental completed its $10 billion principal-debt milestone and established a new $6 billion target.
  • Management identified CO2 enhanced oil recovery, waterfloods and AI-enabled artificial lift as efficiency and recovery initiatives; the analysis reports AI surveillance on 68% of artificial-lift wells, with 50% operating autonomously.
  • The supplied scorecard shows EPS of $1.91 versus $1.46 estimated, while revenue was $6.772 billion versus $6.803 billion estimated.
  • The stated 2027 plan emphasizes approximately $5.9 billion of capital spending, flat production and efficiency-led growth.

Management priorities

  • Reach the new $6 billion principal-debt target and evaluate opportunistic share repurchases.
  • Execute the 2027 capital plan with a focus on efficiency and flat production.
  • Expand CO2-EOR and waterflood projects and use AI-driven artificial lift and predictive maintenance.
  • Advance low-cost CO2 off-take and commission the STRATOS plant, subject to the stated project timeline.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
OXY REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $7B Q1 '24 actual $6B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $7B Q2 '24 actual $7B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $6B Q2 '25 actual $6B, miss Q3 '25 estimate $7B Q3 '25 actual $7B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $6B Q4 '25 actual $5B, miss Q1 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '26 actual $5B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $7B Q2 '26 actual $8B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $7B Q3 '26 actual $7B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $6B Q1 '27 estimate $6B
Show 1 more >

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold49 ratings
Bullish2551.0%
Neutral2244.9%
Bearish24.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$57.13Current
$24Low
$63.07Average
$86High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainOct 27, 2026
Susquehanna Positive PositiveMaintainOct 20, 2026
Stephens & Co. Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 19, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainOct 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 15, 2026
Show 44 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $57.13. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$76$64.07 +33.0%Oct 27, 2026
JefferiesLloyd Byrne$60$62.38 +5.0%Oct 17, 2026
Roth CapitalLeo Mariani$70$62.26 +22.5%Oct 16, 2026
Truist FinancialGabe Daoud$64$60.67 +12.0%Oct 15, 2026
Morgan StanleyDevin McDermott$71$61.24 +24.3%Oct 15, 2026
See 114 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-11-10T23:08:49.748350+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-11-10T01:23:14.443147+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-10T23:10:51.636568+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-10T23:10:51.633885+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.